Real estate remains France's leading industry. An ignored industry. An industry snubbed at the highest level by the executive. An industry battered by the fiscal voracity of an overspending State.
An industry that nevertheless accounts for 10.2% of GDP, as the 9th edition of the Panorama de l'immobilier et de la ville, produced by EY and the Palladio Foundation, and to which Business Immo contributed to the launch, reminds us.
But whatever its resilience, real estate is not an immune industry. The crisis facing the sector will result in a 1.2% fall in added value by 2024, while GDP will grow by 1.1%. For some sectors, it's like a "chainsaw massacre". Promotion has plummeted by 13%, and the sector has seen a 150% explosion in business failures.
The crisis is also taking its toll on employment. The industry remains France's largest employer, with 2.4 million people. But headcount fell by 1.3% last year, and even more sharply in property development (-5.1%) and marketing (-3.5%). The inevitable consequence of market attrition.
The state of affairs is hardly surprising for professionals, who have been constantly alerting public authorities over the past few years. Faced with a deafening silence and the absence of a coherent policy, the 400 or so executives questioned are rather dubious about the future of the real estate sector.
Consolidation and change are the key.
Consolidation means stopping the bleeding before the rebound. For example, only 58% of managers plan to recruit in the next three years. This means showing a certain, perhaps even extreme prudence.
Mutation means projecting our business, our strategy and our value proposition over the long term, in the fabric of a city that must embrace decarbonization. Whatever the economic cycle.
The avenues have been identified: urban densification, intensification of uses and innovation in both construction and restructuring.
We now need to create the legal, regulatory and fiscal conditions to free up the capital that is eager to invest in these essential goods for citizens and economic agents alike.