ATLANTA — Hotel transaction activity will continue to pick up, but some U.S. markets are seeing more activity than others, especially if you zoom in on submarkets, said Ryan Bosch, principal at Arriba Capital.
"There's macro headwinds in a lot of markets, but even in some of the more distressed markets, there's still submarkets there that are being resilient," Bosch said in a video interview at the 2026 Hunter Conference. "But I think nationwide, we're seeing pockets emerge all over the place where acquisition activities pick it up."
Bosch called out specific regions and states that are seeing higher hotel transactions activity, including the Sun Belt in general, as well as Texas, Florida and the Bay Area.
As encouraging as this micro-market activity is, Bosch said he's closely watching decisions the Federal Reserve is making surrounding interest rates. Relief is expected, he said, but with the Iran conflict, there's pressure to keep rates high.
"But that could change very quickly, depending on how things play out. But I think interest rates are having the biggest effect," he said. "If you look at long-term treasury yields right now, which is the major driver on permanent financing, the market expects those rates to go up over the next 10 years, not down."
Bosch added that on the short-term side — for construction loans, bridge loans, floating rate debt — he expects relief throughout the rest of the year.
Another opportunity Bosch said he's seeing is hotel conversions, including office conversion plays that include tax incentives or credits, especially for historic properties.
"Making a ground-up development pencil today is extremely challenging," he said. "There's still deals that make sense out there, but we're seeing much more activity on the conversion side."
In general, Bosch's expectation for the rest of the year is for hotel transaction volume to pick up — around 25% for the year, he said.
"I think it's a great time to be a buyer today," he said. "I think there's a lot of capital out there on the debt side. Equity is more challenging, but I think if you have the equity figured out, there's going to be some really good basis plays throughout 2026."
For more from Arriba Capital's Ryan Bosch, watch the video or listen to the podcast embedded above.