Lockdowns, fluctuating border closures and ever-changing COVID-19 restrictions all contributed the challenge of forecasting in 2020 for hotel revenue managers in the Middle East and Africa.

Speaking during the “Middle East and Africa Forecast” panel at the online Hotel Data Conference: Global Edition, Caroline Thissen, senior area director of sales and revenue optimization at Radisson Hotel Group, said her team had an exceptionally hard time forecasting.

There were no trends or patterns to rely on, and when there was a trend, it would change overnight, she said. It turned into a best-guess scenario.

“All we could do was be flexible,” she said.

Kerstin Pundt, director of revenue management and distribution at JA Resorts & Hotels, said it was a guessing game with which borders and countries would be open and what the quarantine rules were.

Her team’s approach in 2020 was to forecast about one to two months out. It wasn’t until the end of 2020 that her team moved back to more of a normal forecasting pattern.

“However, we’re very aware that this can change at any moment,” she said. “You just have to be flexible. We’re dependent on so many markets coming into Dubai, and if these countries are not traveling — your best guess is your best guess.”

JA Resorts & Hotels learned that forecasting tools and software couldn't always replace human instinct and judgment. Pundt's team remained hands-on.

Thissen said Radisson will further segment out the business that's coming into each of its hotels more than ever before.

"Is it corporate, is government, is it training associations — so for me, I can see that is the way we'll be going; segment even further," she said.

Hotel companies are also beginning to revenue-manage mega-events like Dubai's Expo 2020. The event is set to start in October 2021 after being postponed from last year.

Pundt said her company is already seeing requests coming in from those who are helping to construct the event and need to arrive early.

"What we haven't seen is any big demand from groups or individual travel — that's still very slow for our properties despite that fact that we have properties that are in very close proximity to the [Dubai Exhibition Centre]," she said.

The overall consensus appears to be that people are still hesitant to book that far in advance. By the summer, she expects that to pick up some.

Radisson has also seen some business at its apartment-hotels from those working on the expo who need longer stays, Thissen said.

Her hotels already have packages in place to attract individual travelers during the event. However, she expects there to be late booking lead times.

"I think people really will wait to book if they are coming internationally," she said.

The local markets have proven to be helpful for the region during the pandemic as there's been higher demand for staycations than ever seen before at her resort properties, Pundt said.

"We do foresee that continuing to be the case in 2021," she said.

Barbara Fraccascia, analysis manager at STR, said vaccine deployment is one key component that will underpin demand recovery. STR is CoStar Group's hospitality analytics firm.

"This will be the key driver that will allow our return to growth," she said.

The United Arab Emirates has the second-fastest vaccine program across the entire world, which she said is driving domestic demand.

Fraccascia said STR's latest forecast produced in conjunction with Tourism Economics projects domestic demand to return to 2019 levels by 2022, while international travel will be 2024.

The "shorter-haul segment will be the fastest to recover, while mid- and long-haul will take a bit longer," she said. "That's particularly important for the UAE, where around 50% of the arrivals come from long-haul markets."