The week of Easter 2026 figured to be the first real test for European hotel performance when measuring the potential impact from the war in Iran.
While different calendar shifts and economic conditions factored into the equation, the week’s data does suggest that the uncertainty in the Middle East added to European hotels' underperformance.
The six days prior to Easter, including the Friday Bank Holiday, did not impress. Occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) decreased across all four European subcontinents relative to Easter 2025, though performance improved as Easter weekend approached.
However, it’s not possible to attribute the declines to one factor. When interpreting these results, there are really three key factors to consider:
First, there was a difference in how school holidays landed this year. Given Easter fell two weeks earlier in 2026, there is more time for school holidays post-Easter than in 2025. In this case, we would expect data for the week ending April 11 to pop relative to the week ending April 26, 2025.
Second, results can signal increased consumer uncertainty and/or price sensitivity to rising gasoline costs. That would likely lead to further year-over-year declines for the week ending April 11.
And finally, Storm Dave likely derailed or at least delayed some U.K. and Ireland travel over the weekend. Leeds remained up due to the FA Cup Quarterfinals played Easter Sunday.
Country-level outliers skewed toward the negative
While most countries reported decreases from Easter 2026, two countries require additional context: Turkey and Greece.
Our partners in Turkey have noted that the Iran war has led to a decrease in hotel demand from the Middle East and the U.S. Additionally, continued currency concerns create a pricing conundrum for local hoteliers.
In Greece, an increase in seasonal closures compared to 2025 has skewed results. As shoulder season demand has largely grown over the past several years, the continued closures reflect hotelier uncertainty around traveler demand. Additionally, performance in Athens — where seasonal closures were unchanged — was still down from Easter 2025. This further supports geopolitical uncertainty affecting hotel demand, although the Athens International Airport did report a 3.8% year-over-year increase in passengers in March 2026.
Missing demand
Hotel occupancy was down almost across the board, with France and the Nordics the exception. However, the declines can’t be pinned solely on travelers staying home due to rising accommodation costs. Rates fell in most countries, including countries that would be expected to post ADR growth, such as Italy, Portugal and Greece.
At the market level, gateway markets and capital cities were down the most. These are declines that would happen even with a straight year-over-year comparison, which would pair Easter 2026 with a ‘normal’ week in 2025. The fact that RevPAR slipped so much relative to the same holiday last year does raise some concern.
In leisure markets, there was some modest improvement. Interestingly, interior markets tended to fare better than coastal; Lake Geneva, Mestre & Venice, and Tuscany all found some demand.
When filtering to top hotel occupancy growth markets with no respect to market size, it’s the regional, rural and mostly interior areas that reported good growth.
Conclusion
Remember that holiday comps can always be iffy. This Easter could be a one-off and not indicative of a larger negative trend developing.
If school holidays have indeed shifted because of the earlier Easter, data for the week ending April 11 will be better.
What is most concerning is some Southern/Mediterranean destinations — like Turkey, Greece and Cyprus — appear to be and likely will continue to grapple with travelers’ perceptions of safety due to their closer proximity to the Middle East.
Additionally, European consumers do not appear to be best placed to handle additional cost-of-living increases, and increased price sensitivity may limit trips and/or change destinations this year. Landlocked destinations that are more west might end up being the new leisure hot spots this summer—Switzerland, France and Northern Italy.
Kelsey Fenerty is manager, analytics at STR, CoStar Group's hospitality analytics division.