The men's football World Cup gets under way this Sunday (20 November) with Brazil being heavily tipped as favourites to win ahead of France, Argentina and England in that order.
That's according to betting website Bet365. All of those countries are previous winners of football's greatest prize so it's no surprise to see them being touted for glory, but where do they stand in those other glittering competitions – the World Cup of UK commercial real investors and the World Cup of real estate markets by value?
For the first competition, CoStar has pieced together data showing which nations were the biggest investors in UK real estate in the run-up to this year's competition compared with 2018, the year the last World Cup was held in Russia. There are 32 teams competing in the soccer version of the trophy, but we have only listed the 23 top countries that invested in the UK in 2022.
The figures provide a handy proxy for changing investor appetite for UK commercial real estate over the past four years.
Plenty has happened in that period, not least a global pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine, which has prevented Russian citizens from investing in one of their favourite destinations.
The UK has won its own investment World Cup this year with £14,475 million of investment so far, bolstered by a robust first half of 2022 before transactions slowed on global and local economic troubles.
Not far off – and a result it would be over the moon to replicate in the tournament itself – is the US with £10,519 million invested. Unfortunately, England and Wales, which play as separate countries, are in the same group as the US, and the draw means it is very unlikely they would play each other for the top and second spots in the final.
There are a number of stand-out performers in the UK property World Cup that have not made it to this year's football tournament including Singapore in third and China/Hong Kong in fifth.
Of the usual football tournament heavyweights, Germany, France and then Spain place highest. Brazil and Argentina, which come to Qatar with red-hot football squads, unfortunately have not seen the benefits of investing in the game's founder-country. Brazil, Russia and the British Virgin Islands, placed 209 in the FIFA rankings, dropped out of the table.
One country that has been making a name for itself in both charts is Australia. The Socceroos have some expectation of outperforming their previous best effort, which was last 16 in 2006, although their opening match against France looks tricky. The country has invested £1,299 million in the UK in 2022, a 2,306% rise on 2018's £54 million. The US is second for the biggest percentage increase in its investment, with an 179% hike.
Both countries have seen real estate in the UK, notably London, as a good opportunity to take advantage of the relative improvement of their currencies against sterling.
The biggest percentage falls investment wise are Denmark, down 93%, and China and Hong Kong, South Korea, Ireland, Belgium and Saudia Arabia, all down by more than 60%. The UK's total investment this year has slipped 42%. It is important to note that these figures are for the year to date against the full year in 2018, but deal flow is not expected to lift dramatically in the final weeks of 2022.
Qatar, the host nation, has been criticised for its human rights record but is one of the UK's long-term biggest commercial real estate investors. Qatari investors own, among other places, London Bridge Quarter including the Shard and the super prime Chelsea Barracks development. Over the last four years, its expenditure dropped by 19% but it has risen up the table to a respectable 19th.
The World's Most Valuable Real Estate Markets
According to Savills' most recent update, the value of all the world’s real estate reached $326.5 trillion in 2020, a 5% increase on 2019 levels and a record high. Growth was driven by residential, which is by far the largest sector, accounting for 79% of all global real estate value. Its value increased by 8% over the year, to $258.5 trillion.
China, home to 1.4 billion people, is the world’s most valuable residential market and accounts for 30% of total global residential value, according to Savills. Total residential value grew by 13% in 2020, driven by strong price growth coupled with the delivery of new supply.
The US in second accounts for 11% of world residential value, while just 10 countries – China, US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, South Korea, Canada, Italy and Australia – make up 75% of the global residential total.
At a regional level, significant residential wealth is concentrated in Europe and North America, accounting for 43% of value combined, despite being home to just 17% of the global population.
The United States is the largest global commercial property market, accounting for 27% of global value. It is followed by China, at 16% and Japan at 6%, together making up just under half of all commercial property value.
