Conflicting economic signals confound policymaking
Fed weighs how to respond to rising prices as the labor market slows
As data from July continues to roll out, the economic picture remains muddled.
Consumers slow spending as delinquency rates rise
But household balance sheets remain in relatively good shape
American consumers have become more hesitant to spend, with year-over-year growth in real personal consumption expenditures falling a full percentage point from 3.1% at the end of ...
Evidence of an economic slowdown is piling up
Payrolls remain flat, GDP slows and manufacturers report deteriorating conditions
A batch of high-profile report releases last week confirmed one conclusion: The United States economy is slowing down.
Manufacturers' mood improves as trade talks heat up
Activity turns positive in July across much of the country
American manufacturers’ mood improved for the most part in July, according to a slew of regional Federal Reserve survey releases, marking a reversal from several months of suppress...
Consumers temper their pessimism as a tariff deadline nears
Sentiment improves for the third straight month
A buoyant stock market and a temporary pause in tariff tension helped temper American consumers' pessimism last month, according to a handful of data releases.
Tariff revenue and cuts to education yield a monthly surplus to the government’s coffers
Nation sees year-to-date deficit shrink by 1%
The federal government received more money than it spent in June, according to the U.S. Treasury Department’s monthly statement released last week.
Slower job growth is a demand-and-supply story
Employment remains on stable footing despite signs of weakness
Headline metrics continue to show the American job market on stable footing. However, a more detailed look at the data reveals misleading seasonal signals, sectoral shifts and chan...
Slowing sales ease housing price growth, with prices falling in some places
Prices drop in Sun Belt markets, rise in Northeast and Midwest
An already sluggish for-sale housing market is facing a slower summer, recent data shows.
The Federal Reserve downgrades US growth projections again. It’s not alone.
Global finance organizations weigh uncertainty over trade as tariffs loom
The Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee met last week and decided to keep its target policy interest rate unchanged for its fourth-consecutive meeting.
Policy uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook for inflation
Immigration and budgetary moves could impact prices
Last week’s news that inflation rose less than anticipated cheered market participants who had expected consumer and producer price hikes in reaction to the recent imposition of ta...
Although cracks appear, the labor market holds on
Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.2%
May’s monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the American job market is softer than it appears. But it’s likely not soft enough to move the Fe...
Consumers hold on as market volatility and trade policies rattle confidence
Next employment report could be telling
The American consumer remains healthy but hesitant heading into the summer.
Uncertainty and credit concerns slow consumer spending
American consumers show caution as tariff talk heats up
American consumers are hunkering down, a slew of data releases showed last week.
The job market holds up — for now
Hiring surpasses expectations as signs of softening emerge
The American job market surpassed expectations in April, sending stocks soaring while pushing economists’ expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later into the year.
Forecasters stay nimble as policies wobble
Policy uncertainty continues to weigh on business investment and new hiring
Forecasting the economy's path has become increasingly challenging as the new administration’s policy announcements fluctuate. Economists have been digesting the news as it unfolds...
Factories pause after blistering construction spending
Manufacturers worry tariffs could bring price increases
As uncertainty about tariffs and trade policy continues to percolate, many are watching the current health and prospects of America’s manufacturing industry.
Cooling inflation offers cold comfort for uncertain consumers
Many bet the good news won't last
While backward-looking data released last week showed substantial progress in the battle to contain inflation, consumers and investors alike are betting it won’t last.
Uncertainty about tariff policies overshadows strong jobs, auto sales numbers
Sentiment sours as businesses and consumers brace for fallout
With far-reaching tariffs rolling out and additional levies being announced unpredictably, American businesses and consumers are bracing for impact. The broad-based equity market s...
Sun Belt markets gained the most jobs after the pandemic. Now, that's changing.
Employment growth is more distributed these days
The five years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic disruption intensified the southward and westward movement of the United States labor market. Over t...
Import and export costs rise as tariffs loom
Consumers, small businesses fret about possible trade war
With more details on the Trump administration’s tariff policies set to be released on April 2, increasing attention has turned to their potential impact on consumer prices.