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Profits Drop at Big Banks, Homebuilder Confidence Plunges, Restaurant Recovery Faces Challenges

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Bank of America is among the large financial services firms that saw quarterly profits drop as revenue rose in areas such as credit card spending and equity trading. (CoStar)
Bank of America is among the large financial services firms that saw quarterly profits drop as revenue rose in areas such as credit card spending and equity trading. (CoStar)
CoStar News
July 18, 2022 | 10:19 P.M.

Profits Drop at Big Banks

The latest quarterly earnings reports show major declines in profits for banking firms including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. But banking shares nevertheless rose on Wall Street Monday as customers continue to ring up purchases on their bank-issued credit cards.

Several banks, also including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, reported double-digit declines in profits in the second quarter compared to the year-earlier period even as financial services giants saw significant gains in trading volumes as equity traders reacted to volatile market conditions by buying and selling stocks. Goldman’s quarterly trading revenue was up 32% from a year ago.

At Bank of America, second-quarter profits dropped nearly 33% from the year-ago period as revenue rose 6%. Customers' credit card spending was up 17%, and interest rates on those cards are now rising. Executives said consumer strength is still reflected in high savings and checking account balances even as consumers are spending on travel, entertainment and other services.

“Despite the worries of a slowing economy, our customers’ resilience and health remains strong,” Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said during a Monday conference call with analysts. Consumer default rates remain near record lows, though Bank of America Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick noted the Federal Reserve still has “a lot of work to do” in taming annual inflation now at a 40-year high of 9.1%.

Several analysts and corporate leaders, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, have warned of a recession or other significant economic downturn within the next two years if rising costs aren’t brought under control soon.

Homebuilder Confidence Plunges

A stalling housing market has taken its toll on homebuilder confidence, with a prominent trade group citing factors including high inflation and rising interest rates suppressing single-family home sales.

The National Association of Home Builders’ July index, measuring shifts in builder outlook, fell 12 points from the prior month to 55, the lowest reading since May 2020 and the largest single-month drop in the 35-year history of the index, except for the 42-point drop in April 2020. This is also the seventh straight monthly decline in the index, which is administered with Wells Fargo.

“Production bottlenecks, rising home building costs and high inflation are causing many builders to halt construction because the cost of land, construction and financing exceeds the market value of the home,” Jerry Konter, chairman of the Washington, D.C.-based trade group, said in a statement Monday.

In another sign of a softening market, the trade group noted 13% of builders in the latest survey reported reducing home prices in the past month to bolster sales or limit cancellations. “Affordability is the greatest challenge facing the housing market,” said Robert Dietz, the group’s chief economist. “Significant segments of the home buying population are priced out of the market.”

Other analysts have noted that a market cooling could help longtime apartment renters and other prospective first-time buyers who have been unable to afford homes in many U.S. regions. However, current pressures on builders won’t help boost supply in regions where construction has long lagged demand, especially California. “Policymakers must address supply-side issues to help builders produce more affordable housing,” Dietz said.

Restaurant Recovery Faces Challenges

Full-service casual restaurants have seen a significant rebound from pandemic lows over the past year, but they appear to have hit stumbling blocks over the past two months in the form of high gas prices and inflation, which is now at a 40-year high.

Year-over-year, sit-down dining visits have been trending down since May, according to a new midyear report by real estate traffic analytics firm Placer.ai. “Now, the declines in discretionary spending could have an extended effect on the category — and the drop in demand could be exacerbated by declines in domestic tourism driven by fuel prices,” Placer.ai Vice President Ethan Chernofsky and CEO RJ Hottovy said.

The Los Altos, California-based firm referenced a May report by the Washington Post, including survey results showing about 61% of respondents said gas prices were a “major factor” in making summer vacation plans. Fifty-four percent said hotel or lodging prices were a major factor, and 52% said the same regarding air travel prices.

The Placer.ai report said many full-service restaurants, including national and regional chains, will likely be able to weather a brief pullback in on-site dining in the same way they survived the pandemic, including moves to enhance drive-thru, pickup and delivery services, which also help lower labor and other operating costs.

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