Last week it was an operation to kill a Mexican cartel leader. This week it's a new war targeting Iran with retaliatory action happening across the Middle East and surrounding regions.
Amid the new and escalating global news headlines, I'm listening to hotel executives and industry analysts speaking from events around the world giving their outlooks for hotel business in 2026. So many say things like, "barring any other major disruption, we expect this," or "Provided we can have some increased visibility into interest rates, we predict this."
Nope. Disruption is a given now, and this particular brand of geopolitical disruption our world seems hell-bent on engaging in these days means that travel patterns and behaviors are forever changed — or at least changed for a very long time, until another disruptor comes along.
Are travel disruptions the worst parts of these wars and engagements? Of course not. Death, destruction and devastation are the worst parts. But the ripple effects of conflict touch every industry, and travel particularly acutely.
Oxford Economics already is forecasting the travel implications of the war on Iran, estimating inbound arrivals to the region dropping up to 27% this year alone. And that's just four days into the war. The Athletic is speculating what it'll mean if Iran withdraws from the World Cup. Formula 1 is considering diverting its two Middle East grands prix in April — in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia — to other tracks. That's just the tip of the iceberg, especially around events in the Middle East.
More immediately, people are stuck on cruise ships, tourists and businesspeople are stranded across the Middle East, many with zero visibility on how and when they'll get home.
The travel ecosystem is equal parts robust and delicate; our industry has a lot of tools at its disposal to get people from point A to point B, shelter them, move them, protect them, analyze where they came from and where they'll go next. But it seems like it doesn't take much for the entire enterprise to crack.
We must treat disruptions as givens, not exceptions, and plan for them because no government or other executive body will do it for us. Email me or find me on Twitter or LinkedIn.
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