We see so many fads in our industry that initially, we thought GLP-1 medications were going to go the same way.
But now, there are around 3 million adults in the United Kingdom using them, which is about 5% of the workforce and is already significant and already filtering down into how guests are ordering meals in hotels.
That number has been forecast to increase to 7 million U.K. adults within two years through a combination of people choosing to go on the medication and people being prescribed it. When you combine that with the existing trends for guests to move away from drinking and toward healthier eating, there is a wave of change breaking over our sector that has to be addressed.
The key shift is that people want to eat smaller. They still want to eat out. It's not that guests are not eating; the drug takes away all that food noise, the preoccupation with eating that causes cravings. You’re not thinking: “Oh I’ll have a bit of chocolate, I really fancy that cake.” It allows you more time and space to choose what you're going to eat more carefully.
That's what happened to me. I travel a lot and I would rarely eat in the mornings, so by mid-afternoon my brain couldn't focus on anything else because I was starving. And then I would eat the wrong things. Now I'm not hungry, but I know I've got to eat. I know I have to give sustenance to my body, so I choose smaller meal portions and I tend to gravitate to higher-protein meals because I'm not craving anything high fat or high salt. Desserts have disappeared completely.
In hospitality we are seeing this translating into people ordering more starters because there are no smaller main course options. I believe that one of the consequences will be the return of the sharing culture, with people ordering a number of small plates between a group. Guests still want that flavor, they still want a high-quality meal, but they're moving towards healthier, more nutritious dishes.
The sector will have to tread very carefully, because whether you're a regular guest or whether you're a GLP -1 guest, there's still a demand for quality. They want the experience, but they don't want the indulgence.
For the menus, we are looking at more chicken, steak, salmon, dishes made out of eggs and leaner burgers. These will require a slightly different cooking technique because the fat is what keeps the burger moist and juicy. We’ll be keeping the same content as you would in regular dish, but removing some of those unhealthier parts of a cooking technique, whether that's deep-fat frying, confiting or smothering it in butter to make it taste better. But we've still have to deliver premium dishes.
We are anticipating lower pricing, reflecting the lower portion sizes, which will mean we need to drive more sales. But we may find that increased demand comes not only from GLP-1 guests, but from the impact of the rising cost of living.
There is definitely also an impact on your alcohol consumption. Again, it's more about the ability to pause and say: ‘Oh, I'm not going to have an alcoholic drink. I'm going to go for something that will give me some more vitamins and minerals.” That will mean a move towards premium drinks, both alcoholic and non-alcoholic.
The younger generation coming in now, not just the GLP-1 users, are consuming a lot less alcohol. They're going for premium quality, not quantity, and it’s the same in their dining habits; they’re a lot more health-conscious than I think any previous population. If you put the two driving forces together of a changing dining habit of a generation and a medication that is going to drive a habitual change with that population, then you're going to end up with quite a large adult population that is not going to want to see menus as they are now.
It is still largely unknown territory, but I don't want to alienate the people using this medication, because they should absolutely be able to enjoy the experience of eating out. But I look back to the early years of veganism, where we all lost business because out of a table of four, one was a vegan, so they had to find where the vegan could enjoy a meal that wasn’t a plate of salad. It was a serious changing point for restauranteurs, but we all poo-pooed it at the time. We eventually accepted that it was part of the changing culture of diners and it’s important that we don’t make that mistake again.
Toby Hill is director of food and beverage at Kew Green Hotels. He is based in the United Kingdom.
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