Calendar shifts in the fourth quarter of this year should be beneficial ones for the hotel industry.
October gains an extra Saturday on the calendar compared to last year, while November loses a Saturday. December holidays such as the first day of Hanukkah, Christmas and New Year's Day all fall on Friday, a favorable draw for hoteliers as the weekend timing bodes well for increased travel demand.
Michelle Westbrook, vice president of revenue management at Island Hospitality Management, said that these holidays falling on a Friday "should be a net positive for demand."
"It's encouraging for leisure demand, allowing many to tie in time off into a three-day weekend," Westbrook said in an email interview. "In 2025, we saw an immediate holiday lag starting a weekend earlier when Christmas Eve kicked off the holiday mid-week. This should be tempered this year with the holidays falling later in the week."
Didio Pequeno, director of hospitality market analytics, Northeast and Midwestern U.S., at CoStar, said of all the holiday shifts, New Year's sticks out the most. The shift in New Year's Eve falling on a Wednesday to a Thursday this year could prove significant, as it's easier for travelers to take time off and celebrate an extended long weekend.
"This year, with everything that's gone on with the World Cup and America 250, I think there's a good opportunity and a good chance that people will still want to get out and celebrate the year, despite everything else that's gone on politically and with the war in Iran still going on," he said.
New York City always sees strong demand for the New Year's holiday thanks to its ball drop celebration in Times Square, but a few other markets could see a lingering benefit from the U.S.'s 250th anniversary, Pequeno said. Philadelphia, Boston and Washington, D.C., have the potential to see strong demand in the closing days of 2026 as well.
October and November trade Saturdays
October is gaining a Saturday this year, and it's not just any Saturday — it's Halloween. While the non-federal holiday won't necessarily spur any travel demand itself, it keeps the midweek open for business travel.
"Historically, when Halloween falls midweek, we tend to see some disruption to business travel and group activity, along with softer demand around the holiday," Westbrook said. "This year, having Halloween on a weekend should allow us to capture that leisure demand without negatively impacting midweek corporate and group business."
The trade-off of gaining an October Saturday while losing a November Saturday is one that hoteliers will take. Pequeno said the overall impact will vary from market to market — New York City is an example of one that will benefit — but performance is typically better in October than it is in November.
"October is generally a pretty strong month, so having an extra weekend day [in New York City] is a big deal," he said. "People keep traveling. People keep spending. So something like that definitely benefits a market like New York."
Halloween falling on a Saturday also means November starts with a clean slate, unaffected by any travel shifts caused by the holiday, Westbrook said.
"While there is one less weekend day compared to last year, the month still contains four strong weekends, so overall we would expect the impact to be limited," she said.
General booking patterns
Booking windows have remained relatively short this year, and that isn't likely to change in the fourth quarter.
"That's just life now. Everyone just books trips later," Pequeno said. "That's just booking tendencies now with the average traveler."
Island Hospitality Management typically sees holiday bookings start to come in about 45 days out, with the largest spikes coming in the final two to four weeks leading up to the holiday, Westbrook said.
One wild card Westbrook pointed out is weather. Storms, snow and other seasonal weather uncertainties can play a factor for these fourth quarter holidays from both sides of the coin. While it might take away some demand in Northern markets, hotels in Southern states such as South Carolina, Florida and Georgia will benefit.She said she's cautiously optimistic about the fourth quarter of 2026 after strong second and third quarters.
"The shorter booking window remains a challenge, and we're adjusting our strategies accordingly while positioning for demand across group, government and leisure segments, particularly as many markets are seeing healthy increases in government per diems," she said. "Where demand is strong, we'll protect [average daily rate] and manage lower-rated segments accordingly. Where pace is softer, we'll look to adjust early enough to react to the lower demand."