For the time being," says Arthur Loyd in its latest study, exclusively available to Business Immo, "the year-end forecasts remain valid. In other words: the market for investment in unmarked commercial real estate should reach between €13 and €16 billion by 2025, compared with just €12.5 billion last year.
Offices should also follow this positive trend, says the consultancy, whose analysis is based on the more than €5 billion currently in the marketing phase, under exclusivity or under promise on the Paris region market; almost 70% of this volume concerns assets valued at more than €200 million, notes Arthur Loyd, which adds a "however" to its forecast.
" However", then, "global geopolitical and economic uncertainties could, once again, reverse the trend". "Donald Trump's trade war could have a significant impact on the mechanics of global growth, as well as on stock and bond markets", explains the consultancy. "While real estate should retain its safe-haven status in this volatile sequence, we cannot rule out at this stage an impact of the global context on the trajectory of the various real estate markets."
Note that during Q1 2025, "prime" yields on the four asset classes remained stable. The market took a wait-and-see approach to the rise in the yield on the 10-year OAT, in the wake of the rise in the yield on the German Bund in early March, following the announcement of the massive investment plan by future Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Since then, the OAT TEC has fluctuated between 3.30% and 3.50%. The spread between the Paris "prime" yield and the OAT was +77 basis points at the end of March, compared with +130 basis points historically.
Q1, despite everything, in response to the premonitions observed at the end of 2024, the French investment market reached €3.4 billion. This represents a 70% increase overQ1 2024, but is still below its five-year average (-30%). However, Arthur Loyd points out that this vigorous performance is tempered by several major transactions: the sale of 60% of Kering's Paris retail portfolio for nearly €840 million, Norges' acquisition of an 80% stake in Trinity in La Défense, and the sale of a 15% stake in Westfield Forum des Halles to CDC Investissement Immobilier.
With €1.4 billion invested,
the
office sector is back in the spotlight after a particularly critical year in 2024 for this asset class, historically favored by investors. This first financial year was a success both for the Paris region, where commitments to office assets increased almost threefold, and for the regions (+15% year-on-year).
Arthur Loyd notes that Paris continues to dominate the market, accounting for 60% of the volume invested in the Paris region. This share is well above its long-term average, but is still 20 percentage points lower than in 2024 - due to the sale of part of the Trinity Tower in La Défense. In addition to this last transaction, the sale of Square d'Orléans for almost €110 million and the 280 Saint-Germain acquired by a French duo - Mindston and Gaïa Capital - for a volume close to €120 million, the average unit volume corresponds to transactions of €20 million. This observation is also valid in the regions, where the volume is lower, fluctuating between €10 and €15 million.
Faced with the dominance of Paris, the few transactions recorded on the outskirts of the Paris region concern the western tertiary markets, and are mainly aimed at assets to be repositioned. "While location risk aversion still predominates among investors, this polarization of the market is beginning to fade, and this trend could continue in 2025 to the benefit of the historically most mature tertiary markets on the outskirts," comments Jean-Baptiste Rochmann, Associate Director in Arthur Loyd's Capital Markets department. "Indeed, trends in the Île-de-France rental market point to a reversal of fortunes: from a peak of over 50%, Paris' market share continues to decline quarter after quarter. Transaction activity in La Défense has risen by 15% in one year, while in the inner suburbs it has risen by 40%. If this trend continues over the long term, it will sooner or later reassure investors as to the fundamentals of the best business districts on the outskirts of Paris, especially at a time when corporate finance departments are regaining control over real estate decisions"
On a national scale, investment funds remain the most active purchasers: 70% of volumes are allocated to offices, compared with 36% in 2024. On the disposals side, Arthur Loyd also finds this type of player accounting for a quarter of volumes, as well as listed real estate companies. As in 2025, private real estate companies and family offices were also present in investment (15% of recorded volumes), particularly in the regions.
Kering - Ardian, the XXL deal
Like offices, retail investment is off to a flying start, with a volume of €1.3 billion, three times more than inQ1 2024, notes Arthur Loyd. This performance is also almost 60% higher than the five-year average. Once again, this promising level of investment should be seen in the context of the two mega-transactions in Paris (the sale of 60% of Kering's Paris retail portfolio, and the sale of part of the shares in the Les Halles shopping center).
Apart from these two deals, the market remains relatively inactive. On the one hand, average unit volumes are around €10m. On the other hand, liquidity remains essentially allocated to out-of-town retailing and food retailing. The latter segment was illustrated by a new outsourcing of nine Carrefour supermarkets to Supermarket Income Reit for a volume close to €40 million. This portfolio comes on top of the retailer's previous sale of 17 supermarkets in 2024, again to the same buyer.
Retail parks, and in particular single units, are still attracting capital, albeit for smaller average volumes of around €5 million. Despite continuing sluggish consumption, shopping areas remain the most popular with the French. However, in an increasingly competitive environment, we are witnessing a gradual transformation of this format. A number of projects are underway, ranging from the redevelopment of shopping areas to improve accessibility or create open-air shopping malls, to the provision of a more comprehensive range of services such as catering and leisure activities: "Studies show that the 'indoor' leisure market is growing strongly in France," points out Pierre Rochard, Associate Director of Retail in Arthur Loyd's Capital Markets department. "Even if the amounts invested in these leisure assets remain modest for the time being, many investors are starting to take an interest in these services. We are also seeing a marked interest in restaurant assets in retail parks. Numerous portfolios have been put on the market and should be finalized in the coming months"
Contrary to the global trend, managers of unlisted real estate funds are making a name for themselves in the acquisition of retail outlets, as in 2024, starting with neo-managers such as Darwin Invest, with its Darwin RE01 SCPI, which is continuing to build up its French portfolio with several acquisitions of unitary out-of-town assets.
Despite a slight year-on-year decline of almost 10%, the
industrial
sector remains dynamic. The logistics segment recorded almost €550 million, while the business recorded more than €150 million of investment in just three months.
In Arthur Loyd's view, the logistics sector retains solid fundamentals - despite a user market slowed by global household consumption - and attracts Anglo-Saxon funds in particular, accounting for 71% of recorded volumes. A case in point is the acquisition by the duo Edmond de Rothschild and Tristan Capital Partners of a 134,000 m² XXL platform within Delta 3 for a volume close to €120 million.
