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Nationwide Mall Landlord Says Retailer Demand Hits Seven-Year High Despite Economic Headwinds

Macerich Sees Tenant Sales Exceeding Pre-Pandemic Levels
Large vacancies such as the former Bloomingdale's and Arclight Theater at Santa Monica Place in California have given Macerich the chance to fill abandoned space with higher-demand uses such as entertainment and offices. (CoStar)
Large vacancies such as the former Bloomingdale's and Arclight Theater at Santa Monica Place in California have given Macerich the chance to fill abandoned space with higher-demand uses such as entertainment and offices. (CoStar)
CoStar News
July 28, 2022 | 8:39 P.M.

In a positive sign for malls around the country, shopping center owner Macerich has been able to insulate itself from macroeconomic concerns as it benefits from strengthening demand for brick-and-mortar space that it expects to carry into next year.

The landlord said it signed nearly 275 leases throughout the second quarter, more than 25% higher than the roughly 215 leases it signed in the same time last year. The Santa Monica, California-based real estate investment trust reported a 7.6% jump in tenant revenue for the first three months of the year compared to the same time in 2021, and portfolio sales per square foot for spaces less than 10,000 square feet hit $860, an all-time record for the company.

"We saw a high level of retail demand, and the resiliency of the retail consumer was again on display," Macerich CEO Tom O'Hern said on an investor call Thursday. "Tenant sales are exceeding pre-pandemic levels, and retailer demand for space is at a level we haven't seen since 2015. Clearly there are economic uncertainties due to inflation, rising interest rates and the war in Ukraine, however, we continue to expect gains in occupancy, net operating income and cash flow from operations through the remainder of the year and into next year."

The company, owner of nearly 50 million square feet across 44 properties concentrated on the West Coast, around New York City and near Washington, D.C., is seen as a bellwether of real estate activity in the nation's malls. Its gains show that after a deluge of store closings, retail bankruptcies and operating restrictions, some retail landlords across the country are benefiting from customers returning to brick-and-mortar stores.

Since hitting its lowest point in decades in the second quarter of 2020, retail leasing across the country has regained momentum to surpass pre-pandemic levels of activity, according to CoStar data. It reached its highest level in four years in 2021 when landlords signed deals for more than 240 million square feet, a 30% bump compared to the multidecade low reported in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.

Keeping Pace

That momentum has carried into 2022, even with rising global economic concerns. Retail leasing activity reached pre-pandemic levels during the second quarter, with more than 61 million square feet of space signed, according to CoStar data, making it the fifth consecutive three-month period in which retail leasing eclipsed 60 million square feet.

The strengthened retail market has also given landlords some leverage on rents. According to CoStar data, retail rents rose at the fastest rate in more than a decade through the second quarter, increasing by an average of 4.5% to a record high of $23 per square foot annually.

Macerich is eager to take advantage of the chance to boost rates across its portfolio, and said its increasing occupancy levels have made that possible.

"It's hard to predict what the second half of the year will be like, and we've certainly seen a very strong first half from all different types of uses, but as we've raised occupancy, that's given us more ability to push rate," O'Hern said, adding the landlord's focus has been able to shift from building back its occupancy figures from an all-time low of about 80% to being able to increase rents. "Now that we're getting closer to where we were pre-COVID, it gives us a lot more ability to push rate."

The landlord reported an average occupancy rate of just shy of 92% as of June 30, a healthy boost from the roughly 89.5% it reported at the same time last year.

It reported that of the more than 400,000 square feet of retail openings at its properties so far this year, more than half debuted in the second quarter, upward of 20% above the same time last year. What's more, the leasing and opening pipeline has been spread across a variety of uses, including health and fitness, food and beverage, entertainment, sports, coworking, hotels and electric vehicles, a sign that Doug Healey, Macerich's executive vice president of leasing, said can be interpreted to underscore the strength of the retail market today.

In response to a question that Derek Johnston, a senior research analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities, asked about how the landlord was planning to leverage "undebatably strong leasing volumes paired with total rent growth," Macerich executives said they were benefiting from unwavering tenant demand that — despite the uncertain economic climate — continued to fuel leasing momentum.

"While the future remains unknown, to date we have seen very little pullback from the retailers," Healey told investors. "But most importantly, given our best-in-class portfolio, a very strong leasing pipeline and a wide depth and breadth of retail uses, we are extremely well positioned to continue to attract shoppers, regardless of what lies ahead."

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