Summer's still around the corner, but U.S. hotel executives already say they feel better about this year.
Summer 2025 was marked by multiple disruptions that put a damper on travel for both guests and hoteliers. New tariffs were leading to higher costs and uncertainty, the U.S. saw lower international inbound travel volume, and federal immigration raids interrupted business.
This year has its own set of disruptions, including higher oil prices, increasing what people pay at the pump as well as in the air.
Even with the uncertainty, revenue managers are saying this summer could give their hotels a much-needed moment in the sun.
Short booking windows
The overall booking window remains short, but that’s consistent with how travelers booked summer travel last year, said Leah McFarland, senior vice president of revenue strategy at Crestline Hotels & Resorts. A good percentage of business still makes its way to the hotel in what would be considered a short term, even in leisure markets and during higher-demand periods.
“I think it's going to be interesting to see if the short-term booking windows and the short-term demand plays out the same way the long-term demand has, because a lot of times those have very different behaviors,” she said.
The rate of people booking their hotel anywhere from 90 to 60 days ahead of the stay is similar to how people booked last summer, McFarland said. But how shorter-term demand — from people who book their hotels less than 60 days out — plays out this year remains to be seen.
“Everything is moving so fast in terms of things that impact travel behavior,” she said. “We likely aren't going to know that until we are in that booking window, and that may mean that we have to pivot strategies very quickly, to ebb and flow with that demand.”
Though the first quarter wasn’t bad, June is when transient business pace really picks up, said Tina Meredith, senior vice president of revenue optimization at PM Hotel Group.
Major events dotting this summer's calendar in the U.S. is causing some travelers to make reservations earlier compared to last year, she said.
“They're booking reservations now for all of these things," she said. "If this was last year at this time, we wouldn't have seen nearly as much on the books, so that's ... proof that the lead times are pushing out for the summer."
When excluding 2026 FIFA World Cup or America 250-related events, the booking window is still generally pretty short, she said.
People are staying longer, but Meredith said length of stay often depends on an event as well. Non-event-related hotel stays likely are shorter than those related to an event.
"Ultimately, it's still going to show by the time the summer is said and done, that we'll have longer lead times,” she said. “But we still have a lot of room to book between now and then.”
World Cup uncertainty
How World Cup demand will play out this summer remains a mystery, McFarland said.
Hoteliers in her company's portfolio are watching the situation with cautious optimism, but on the FIFA group bookings front, demand has come in short of projections.
“We have seen a tremendous amount of group [business] fall off," she said. "On the transient side, there are bookings occurring, but not at any great speed, and so we're left with a decision to make about how we want to strategize that event."
With demand being softer than expected and the short-term booking window playing out as it is, commercial teams are left to figure out whether to set rates that won’t turn away normal, everyday travelers or hedge their bets longer and see if the World Cup demand pays off.
Other major sporting events in the U.S., specifically the Super Bowl, are events that are easier for hotels to benchmark against because of the deep history.
The World Cup is tougher to forecast, largely in part because the international travel associated with it remains up in the air.
Group is coming in lower than expected, international travel is a big question mark, and some of the match draws aren’t overly favorable, McFarland said. That raises the question of whether the U.S. traveler is enough to create compression in those markets and if they’re willing to pay the higher event rates.
“What I'm thinking right now is the answer is, no, it's not,” she said. “But it's not an all-or-nothing approach. You have to continue to walk back the strategy and walk back the policies until you see the demand capture click.”
Calling herself “a forever optimist,” Peachtree Group President of Hospitality Management Vickie Callahan said she believes the World Cup demand will come in, just later than hoteliers want it to.
“This is probably just some short-term pickup that we're probably going to get at a later date,” she said.
Many travelers are going to go to host markets even if they’re not going to the game, just like football fans do for the Super Bowl, because they want to experience the game where it’s happening. The cities will have extra entertainment and events going on.
“I think people are going to have a World Cup experience without actually going to the game,” she said.” I think we'll get some local drive-in traffic from that.”
Meredith said PM Hotel Group’s World Cup markets are seeing opportunities to drive rates. Transient occupancy is up in most of its markets, and average daily rate is up significantly, too, especially in Philadelphia. That’s likely because there are multiple things going on in Philly besides the World Cup and the America 250 events this summer.
“I will tell you that generally in all of our World Cup markets, our ADR is up relatively significantly versus last year,” she said. “We don't have too many situations where there's a huge amount of compression to take advantage of, so we are doing that the best we can.”
Hot summer markets
Beach destination markets are still doing well, McFarland said, pointing specifically to California and Florida. Leisure markets overall are seeing solid demand, including mountain cities in Colorado, which suffered from a bad snow season this winter.
“The ski season was absolutely horrific for your traditional Colorado ski towns,” she said. “But you know what? A lot of us are very hopeful that they get a lovely resurgence of summer travel, because it was a drier, less-snowfall winter that's going to lead to a shorter mud season or shoulder season there.”
That will depend, of course, on those areas keeping wildfires at bay this summer after such a dry winter.
The major cities continue to face challenges, with the exception of New York City, McFarland said.
“New York continues to be that outlier that just keeps churning, but your other first-tier cities are a little bit challenged,” she said. “I think that the leisure traveler — just right now for whatever reason, and maybe it's cost-driven — doesn't seem to be as drawn to the city as they once were outside of New York.”
Washington, D.C., is an example of a major city facing some challenges. With no World Cup matches and some America 250 events, performance there could be a mixed bag, Meredith said.
“I think D.C. could be a little bit of a struggle,” she said.
On the negotiated side, PM Hotel Group isn’t seeing as much headed into the summer, she said. Group, generally for many of its markets, is flat or up, but that’s a mix between corporate and social, military, educational, religious and fraternal groups. It’s not solely one or the other, and there’s some good occupancy still on Tuesdays and Wednesdays while in the throes of the booking window.
Corporate travel is happening, but with higher gas prices and other increased expenses, they're facing some obstacles that might slow travel down, she said.
“Airfares are in some places astronomical, and companies are feeling the pinch right to the bottom line," she said. "Travel is in fact probably one of the easiest and first things that they can start curtailing to help with expenses.”
The leisure markets are where Peachtree is seeing most of its summer lift, Callahan said. Nashville, Atlanta, Sacramento and Tempe, Arizona, in particular are looking good.
“It’s coast-to-coast for us, and it’s specific markets, which has been the trend for the last 12 months," she said. "Certain markets do really well and then others have been a bit sluggish, which I think is normal in our industry.”
Most of the company’s hotels are in suburban locations with a few in urban markets, she said. The smaller urban cities are doing OK, especially if they have any kind of entertainment venue nearby.
Nashville was a surprise because of all the new hotels opened in recent years, but it is having a solid second quarter, Callahan said. She attributed it to the city's mix of long-term group with smaller retail and negotiated SMERF and leisure groups.
She emphasized that there's still room to fill in hotels, but this summer definitely looks better.
"At this time last year, we were truly redirecting our sales effort pretty quickly,” she said.