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Positive US Employment Report Flashes Higher Risk of Recession

Forecasting Model Shows Increased Recession Probability in Next 12 Months, Though the Chance Remains Low
Brad Case, chief economist for Middleburg Communities, gives his thoughts on Friday's jobs report. (Jelena Shulz/CoStar)
Brad Case, chief economist for Middleburg Communities, gives his thoughts on Friday's jobs report. (Jelena Shulz/CoStar)
By Brad Case
Guest Columnist
January 10, 2023 | 9:10 P.M.

The federal government’s jobs report on Friday was quite a bit stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls expanding by 223,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down to 3.5%.

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