I'm not an economist.
I know I took some economy and economy-related classes in college, but I'm working in the field for which I earned my degree.
That is to say, I am not in the business of making forecasts, unlike some of my colleagues at STR and CoStar. If I need help explaining the numbers, they're the folks I call for a quote.
We've got some new numbers coming out, and I think they're speaking pretty well for themselves.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board released its monthly Consumer Confidence Index, showing it dropped by 3.6 points in September to 94.2. It's Present Situation Index, which takes into account how consumers feel about current business and labor market conditions, dropped by 7 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index, which takes into consideration their near-term outlook, dropped by 1.3 points to 73.4.
“Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at the Conference Board, in the news release. “The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.”
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics September job openings and labor turnover summary reported the number of job openings for the month remained unchanged at 7.2 million in August. The number of hirings saw little change at 5.1 million.
The number of quits was relatively flat at 3.1 million, as were layoffs and discharges at 1.7 million.
When looking at data tracked by the private sector, payroll processing firm ADP found the U.S. lost 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, a decrease from the revised loss of 3,000 in August, according to an article by the Wall Street Journal.
CBS News reports outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas is saying U.S. employers cut nearly 950,000 jobs this year through September. It's the largest number of layoffs this country has seen since 2020 when employers laid off 2 million employees.
"Previous periods with this many job cuts occurred either during recessions or, as was the case in 2005 and 2006, during the first wave of automations that cost jobs in manufacturing and technology," said Andy Challenger, senior vice president and labor expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in a statement.
Again, I'm not an economist. These numbers alone don't paint the entire picture, but they're important numbers to track as they come out. If the federal government shutdown continues, we're going to see delays in official labor data coming out, and we'll also likely see more layoffs and furloughs, as well.
Hope your budget season is going well.
You can reach me at bwroten@hotelnewsnow.com as well as on LinkedIn.
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