The Bank of Canada's recent rate cut was expected to boost the housing market, but the country's largest real estate board said existing home and condominium sales activity remains mostly on hold as buyers wait for more reductions.
The Greater Toronto area saw 6,213 home sales in its systems in June, a 16.4% drop compared to 7,429 sales reported in June 2023, TRREB said. New listings rose to 17,964, a year-over-year increase of 12.3%. The average selling price of $1,162,167 was down by 1.6% from a year ago, according to TRREB.
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, or TRREB, said the central bank must repeat its June decision to cut its overnight lending rate. In fact, the board said that several reductions probably will be needed before sales volume rebounds.
"The Bank of Canada's rate cut last month provided some initial relief for homeowners and home buyers," said Jennifer Pearce, president of TRREB, in a statement. "However, the June sales result suggests that most home buyers will require multiple rate cuts before they move off the sidelines."
Once home sales in Greater Toronto gain momentum, an ample number of homes on the market should ensure pricing doesn't jump, the board said.
"The GTA housing market is currently well-supplied. Recent home buyers have benefitted from substantial choice and therefore negotiating power on price," said Jason Mercer, chief market analyst with the board, in a commentary. "Moving forward, as sales pick up alongside lower borrowing costs, elevated inventory levels will help mitigate against a quick run-up in selling prices."
Significant Drop in Calgary
Calgary also saw a significant drop in home sales in June, as sales tumbled 12.8% from the same month in 2023, while new listings decreased by 3.6% and inventory rose by 9.2%, according to new numbers from the Calgary Real Estate Board.
Condo sales in Calgary were down 8% for June, as properties priced under $300,000 were scarce.
The board blamed a shortage of affordable homes across all residential property types. “The pullback in sales reflects supply challenges in the lower price ranges, ultimately limiting sales activity,” Ann-Marie Lurie, the organization's chief economist, said in a statement.
Despite the decline, 40% of the homes sold went for over the asking price, and the unadjusted benchmark home price rose 9% over last June to $608,000, according to the board. The biggest increases were seen in the northeast and east sections of Calgary.
The numbers come in the midst of a population surge in Alberta’s biggest city. Calgary’s 5.9% population growth between 2022 and 2023 was the highest of any of Canada’s six metropolitan areas, with a population of over one million, according to recent Statistics Canada data.
However, its 8.1% unemployment rate remains one of Canada’s highest, although it is partly explained by the 73% labor participation rate, Canada’s highest.
Vancouver a Buyer's Market
In Canada's most expensive city for housing, the Greater Vancouver Realtors said the area has become a buyer's market with inventory continuing to accumulate to levels not seen since the spring of 2019.
The organization said this week June sales in the region were 2,418, a 19.1% decrease from the 2,988 sales recorded a year earlier. The sales numbers were 23.6% below the 10-year seasonal average.
"The June data continued a trend we've been watching where buyers appear hesitant to transact in volumes we consider typical for this time of year, while sellers remain keen to bring their properties to market," Andrew Lis, director of economics and data analytics for the GVR, said in a commentary. "This dynamic is bringing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. This trend is providing buyers more selection to choose from and driving all market segments toward balanced conditions."
Like Toronto Realtors, Vancouver agents are hopeful the Bank of Canada cuts its interest rate again. The central bank is set to release its next announcement on July 24.
“This is yet another factor tilting the market in favour of buyers, even if the boost to affordability is modest,” said Lis about a potential rate cut. “But June’s lower-than-normal transaction volumes suggest many buyers remain hesitant, which has allowed inventory to accumulate and has kept a lid on upward price pressure across market segments."
The group's composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,207,100, a 0.5% increase from a year ago and a 0.4% decrease compared to May 2024.
Montreal, Canada’s second-largest city, proved to be a bright spot in June, when the greater metropolitan area saw a 6.4% increase in residential sales in the greater metropolitan area over the same month last year, according to the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers.
Meanwhile, the Royal Bank of Canada issued a report Thursday that suggested housing has a long way to reach affordability but is headed in the right direction, with rate cuts driving that movement.
"We think ownership costs have room to fall further in the period ahead. In June, the Bank of Canada initiated what we expect will amount to a full two percentage-point cut in its policy rate to 3% by the end of 2025, which will bring down long-term rates as well (but to a lesser extent)," the bank said in a commentary.