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Special Servicing Volume Could Top $100 Bil by Year-End

An extraordinary record $36.1 billion of CMBS loans has transferred from master to special servicing since year-end 2008, according to Fitch Ratings. There were $49.1 billion of loans in special servicing as of June 30, compared with $16 billion at year-end 2008, the current volume represents 6.1% of all CMBS by balance. Fitch estimates the volume of loans in special servicing will continue to grow at the same rate and approach $100 billion by year end, representing approximately 12% of all CMBS loans, or $96.5 billion of total outstanding CMBS today. While Fitch expects specially serviced loan volume to grow to 12%, it does not expect delinquency rates to mirror special servicing volume rates; rather, delinquency is expected to rise as high as 5%.

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