Arthur Loyd Logistique has reviewed the French logistics real estate market over the first six months of the year. According to the consultancy, the market is "maintaining its momentum in a difficult environment".
In fact, with almost 1.2 million m² marketed in 56 transactions, take-up is down slightly by 7% compared to the 1st half of 2024. "The 1st quarter, which recorded one of the rare increases since 2023 (+24%), offsets the sharper downturn recorded between April and June (-32%)", emphasizes Arthur Loyd Logistique.
" In the current context, the end-user market is slowing down without collapsing," notes Didier Terrier, Managing Partner of Arthur Loyd Logistique. "Even if users are holding back for lack of visibility, we're seeing several positive signs," he adds.
According to the consultancy, the logistics market in the Centre-Val-de-Loire region, which recorded record take-up between January and March 2025, confirmed its appeal and dynamism in the second quarter. Transaction activity is well above the average seen in recent years. "Île-de-France stands out this quarter. After three years of turbulence, we have seen the resurgence of the Paris region logistics market, which regained its position as regional leader in the second quarter of 2025, with 126,500 m² placed," points out Didier Terrier.
Logistics providers dominate
Logistics providers will dominate demand for space in France in the first half of 2025, accounting for almost 60% of the market, continues the consultancy. "In a context where shippers remain more cautious, the recent lease by Chinese giant JD.com of 60,000 m² in Tournan-en-Brie illustrates the growing internationalization of the French logistics market, the dynamism of e-commerce and the increased pressure on traditional European providers," points out Didier Terrier.
Furthermore, at the end of June 2025, supply under six months reached 4.7 million m², corresponding to a stable vacancy rate of 6.9%. While two out of every three m² marketed are new warehouses or warehouses under construction, second-hand stock continues to grow, and now represents 77% of immediately available supply, reflecting the growing difficulty of selling these older assets. At the same time, the lack of momentum in the user market in the second quarter is causing rents to stagnate, analyses Arthur Loyd Logistique. The "prime" value, which had risen in Q1 2025, is holding steady at €90/m².
For Didier Terrier, despite a downturn in the end-user market, the clear increase in intentions expressed in recent weeks "is fuelling renewed optimism for the second half of 2025". "What's more, trade and geopolitical tensions are prompting companies to anticipate disruptions to transatlantic supply chains, and are encouraging some players to step up "nearshoring", i.e. strengthening their local storage capacities to secure their supplies - particularly in sensitive sectors (tech, pharmaceuticals, automotive) - with concrete spin-offs for our markets."
Abundant but more selective capital
In addition, with over €1.4 billion invested in the first half of 2025, the logistics investment market is maintaining a solid momentum, close to that recorded in 2024. "This performance is all the more remarkable given the particularly tense economic and geopolitical context, marked by deteriorating visibility on a global scale".
For Nicolas Chomette, Associate Investment Director at Arthur Loyd Logistique, the 2nd quarter's performance "is particularly noteworthy given the current environment". "Investment volumes were 12% higher than in Q2 2024, and 27% higher than the average for the second quarters of the last six years. Buoyed by a number of large-scale transactions, such as Blackstone's €150 million sale of a 5-asset portfolio to the Swedish fund EQT, the portfolio segment continues to attract investors. It now accounts for 45% of the amounts committed over the first six months of the year, confirming the growing interest in pooled volumes and significant tickets".
Furthermore, Arthur Lloyd Logistique points out that the daily reversals in the US political line, driven by Donald Trump, "are fuelling further uncertainty in the markets". "The market's rebound does not, however, dispel the many questions weighing on investors. The economic slowdown in China, persistent trade tensions, logistical unrest in the Red Sea, and the volatility of the US political scene continue to fuel a form of structural caution."
After a phase of rapid inflation between 2022 and 2023, followed by a cycle of aggressive key rate hikes in Europe and the USA, 2025 marks a monetary pause, the consultancy continues. Central banks adopt a wait-and-see stance in the face of partial but still fragile disinflation. "Against this backdrop, prime logistics yields will stabilize just below the 5.00% mark in Q2 2025, following a sharp correction in previous years. Nevertheless, the gradual rise in 10-year sovereign bond yields seen in recent months is exerting upward pressure on prime rates," explains Nicolas Chomette.
"New entrants should stimulate the market".
Faced with this new equilibrium, logistics remains at the heart of defensive allocations, according to Arthur Loyd Logistique. Demand is focused on assets in prime locations, ideally located in strategic areas - logistics backbones, multimodal hubs, last mile. Core+ and value-add players remain the most dynamic, with substantial capital to deploy. "The arrival of new entrants should continue to stimulate the market. Initiated in the second half of 2024, the return of core investors has led to a number of emblematic transactions, such as the acquisition of Aberdeen in Le Coudray-Montceaux", emphasizes the board.
" In a more uncertain environment, the logistics backbone retains its status as a safe haven - perhaps wrongly, given the rising vacancy rates in certain sub-sectors", notes Nicolas Chomette. "The beginning of the year was also marked by significant investments in other geographical areas, such as Normandy, Eastern France and the Atlantic Arc. As for courier and urban logistics ("last mile") assets, they continue to attract a large number of funds with substantial liquidity allocated to this strategy.
Finally, in a market structurally constrained by the scarcity of real estate, logistics continues to be driven by powerful fundamental drivers: the rise of e-commerce, partial relocation of production chains, growing pressure on delivery times, and increasingly stringent environmental requirements, details the Board. All these dynamics reinforce the sector's resilience, even in turbulent times. "In an uncertain environment, investors are looking to secure their capital in tangible, long-term assets. Liquidity remains abundant. Prudence does not mean wait-and-see", concludes Nicolas Chomette.