Just like I do every August, I spent the first week of the month in Nashville for STR's and CoStar News Hotels’ Hotel Data Conference, this year in its 18th edition.
I first came to Music City in 2013, and behind the Omni Nashville hotel all was empty parking lots peppered with small warehouse-size shops selling Stetson hats and Gibson guitars. Now all is hotels, restaurants and residential tower blocks.
The same has happened in the gap between Broadway and Germantown, and Nashville Yards has sprouted up in the last two years and is now full of creatives.
My unofficial data collection exercise is to count the number of state license plates in cities, as my ways of seeing their condition of health.
In Nashville this year I have seen 37, including Maine, North Dakota and Wyoming.
We can strip out Alaska and Hawaii, where newcomers would have to drive a long, long way or ship the vehicle at huge expense.
Nashville is on a tear, but that is not reflective of the U.S. hotel industry as a whole.
It's much of the same in my home in the United Kingdom.
Sarah Quinlan, founder of SAQ Economic Advisory, said during an HDC session that food is expensive, higher than the rate of inflation; insurance is costly, and the effect of tariffs is still negative. She added her home's energy bill recently went above $1,000 a month.
Maybe Quinlan is the one managing that spend, as it is women who are taking the lead on budgeting and spending, she said.
There is a construction boom, she added, but it is all in artificial intelligence, and that new science comes with pluses and minuses. Yet she reminded the audience that Stanford University founded an AI lab in 1963.
Housing is not being built, although there is a critical need. But Americans are also having fewer children; the average is 1.6 children per couple when we need 2.1 children to replace our aging population.
AI is directly affecting white-collar jobs, Quinlan said.
With youngsters coming out of university with higher debts and less salary negotiating power, is there a bubble to be burst — not that it has felt like a bubble is even forming since the pandemic?
Hoteliers, she added, are in a sweet spot.
We have a product that has never been more in demand, but hoteliers need to market to women to get a better share of wallet.
Maybe all the various lines, data and trends are no more complicated this time than they ever have been?
Quinlan also said hoteliers should target the over-65s and retirees, who are increasingly happy to spend their children’s inheritance.
“For them to stop feeling guilty at this, they should be encouraged to take their children on vacation with them,” she added.