Let me start by saying when we consider the effects of Russia's unjustified and bloody war to take control of Ukraine, the business impacts on travel and the hotel industry are nowhere near the top of the priority list. That said, I know many hoteliers are wondering exactly how this latest geopolitical turn will change the trajectory of what's shaping up to be a strong 2022 for the industry.
While pretty much any answer to that question will be pure speculation, it's safe to broadly say that it's next to impossible that any outcome from current events will be good for hoteliers.
As much as we're all fatigued with the word "unprecedented" after the past two years, it's an apt term for what's happening now in relation to the modern hotel industry, since this is the most major European conflict since World War II.
The most direct impacts are obvious. No leisure travelers are headed to Ukraine, and very little travel will be headed to Russia as Western companies move en masse to cut off business in that country for the time being. Travel to Eastern Europe, something that many people were likely looking forward to just weeks ago, will clearly be regarded as a much more dangerous proposition.
And depending how the conflict progresses, people might grow more nervous about international travel in general. At the very least, no one is going to feel more comfortable in this environment.
In the end, this might not all amount to much, but it feels like the odds are much more likely this is a serious moment that we'll remember in both world history and the history of the hotel industry.
Back in early 2020, I wrote a blog similar to this one, cautioning that the COVID-19 pandemic was a serious obstacle for the hotel industry, at the time that many were saying it would be a short dip preceding a rapid recovery. I was even mocked on Twitter by some hoteliers who will remain nameless here claiming mine was just one of many alarmist takes designed to drive clicks.
Those who chose to stick their heads in the sand were wrong then, and I'd venture to say they'll be wrong again this time. I hope for nothing but the best, but the reality is we face a moment in our collective history that is more tenuous than any of us would like and is unlike anything we've had to live through in recent memory.
Who knows how this will ultimately shake out? Obviously not me. But for the time being, let's just keep the health and well-being of the people of Ukraine, and even the young Russian men callously pushed into war by an uncaring leader, in our hearts.
Let me know what you think on Twitter, LinkedIn or via email.
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