NEW YORK — The U.S. hotel industry has been waiting for capital markets and transaction activity to pick up in recent years. Experts believe there are positive trends pointing toward this happening, even if there are some macroeconomic pressures lingering.
Emily Feeney, vice president of capital markets at Noble Investment Group, said her company is feeling optimistic about the transaction market in 2026 following a surge of momentum to close last year.
There's been no shortage of outside noise throughout the first two quarters of this year, but revenue per available room has remained strong, Feeney said during a session at the recent 2026 NYU International Hospitality Investment Forum.
The important trend to follow in regard to hospitality in general is that people are investing in hotels and people are traveling, Feeney said. There are tailwinds that continue to grow, such as desire for workplace mobility, an aging population that prefers experiences over purchasing items and the ensuing generational transfer of wealth in the next decade.
"While we are expecting debt to remain flat ... we think that transaction volume is going to pick up because of the improving month-over-month, week-over-week positivity in performance and the resilience of the customer," she said.
Michael Bluhm, managing director and global head of real estate, gaming, lodging and leisure for Jefferies, said private-equity investors are coming back to hospitality because "people's drive for experience has never been greater."
"I do think you're going to continue to see capital formation around the space and significant pickup in activity across" mergers and acquisitions, he said.
Bluhm said it's hard to attract capital in the public markets because reinvesting in the S&P 500 can be a better three-year bet than taking a chance on a hotel's property value growing more in the same time frame. But there are opportunities where it makes sense.
"It's being able to find that extraordinary growth, which again has largely been in situations where maybe there's a little bit more stress, a little bit more pressure, we can buy the replacement cost. On the opposite side, you're buying into the growth algorithm, which is much more on the high-end," he said.
Jeff Stulmaker, partner and chief investment officer at KHP Capital Partners, said his company has shifted its focus toward upscale hotels because of the success of the higher chain-scale segments in recent years. The wealthy are getting more wealthy in the U.S., so KHP has made investments that lean into that trend.
"It's that luxury-lifestyle positioning instead of just lifestyle, and that's really what the consumer wants today. It's those hotels that speak to who they are, who they aspire to be, and what we've noticed is at that level, the biggest constraint is time, not money," he said. "They're just going to pay whatever they want for the experience they want, not two-thirds of the experience they want, so you got to lean in and give them that."
What makes this cycle different than past ones is the level of intentionality required to underwrite a value-add return in a hotel deal, Stulmaker said.
"We like these more challenging scenarios where you need to dig in and really think about how do you reposition these hotels, how do you create more revenue-generating space, how you take your approach to asset management to effect change, and that's what you have to do," he said.
There's a lot of pressure on costs today, but having a development and construction team in-house helps with navigating a path toward success, Stulmaker said. Instead of worrying about potential renovation costs, they know exactly how much it will all cost and can steer their attention toward minute details such as the cost of a soap pump in a hotel bathroom.
Inflationary pressures have affected new hotel construction more than renovations, which has made renovation projects more intriguing, he said.
"It makes those strategies of renovating an existing asset ... a lot more compelling today," he said.