NASHVILLE, Tennessee—Noble Investment Group CEO Mit Shah said he understands why people are nervous about the state of the hotel industry after a weaker-than-expected second quarter, coupled with a prolonged period of growth many assume is bound to end soon.
But he also thinks it’s inaccurate to assume the outlook going forward should be wholly or even primarily negative because things shift based on someone’s place in the industry.
“I don’t know exactly how it’s going to pan out,” he said. “Our fundamental philosophy at Noble remains the same. We think it’s micro over macro. And the macro lodging fundamentals continue to remain very, very strong, but it’s 2% to 3% (revenue per available room growth). That’s certainly not what it has been over many years in the past, but it’s still good relative to other industry classes.”
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Shah acknowledged the ongoing possibility of macroeconomic or geopolitical “shocks” that could hit the hotel industry and the larger economy, but he felt his company is well poised to survive the resulting turbulence.
“For the 24 years that Noble has been in business, we generally believe that the upscale lodging segment, which we participate in, has remained the most stable,” he said.
He said historical data backs up his point of view.
“If you take the 30-year data on the upscale segment, which includes more than select service, extended stay, as we know, but if you look at that from 1988 to 2017 and look at every 10-year period on average, every single 10-year period has averaged over 2% RevPAR growth with the exception of one period,” he said. “And that was (the 2000s) which had the dot com bust and 2009, the height of the great recession, and that was positive at 0.4%.”
Watch the video below for more on Shah’s outlook for Noble and the larger hotel industry.