After a challenging second quarter, it's only natural to want to look ahead — to both put tough times in the rearview mirror and find reasons for optimism.
Throughout the earnings calls these past few weeks, hotel and travel industry executives outlined the external factors affecting overall demand, such as government pullbacks and corporate hesitancy. They also laid out expectations for the remainder of this year as well as how they expect at least some of 2026 to go.
Generally, the third quarter is shaping up to be another tough period, but a combination of better holiday shifts and event calendars has given execs hope for a stronger end to the year.
Leeny Oberg, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Development, Marriott International
"With ongoing economic uncertainty, we expect global [revenue per available room] to be flat to up 1% in the third quarter and up 1.5% to 2.5% for the full year. Our full-year RevPAR growth is still expected to be meaningfully stronger internationally than in the U.S. and Canada, even with greater China RevPAR still anticipated to be around flat compared to last year. The luxury and full-service segments, where we are extremely well positioned, accounting for over half of our open mobile rooms are expected to continue to nicely outperform lower-end chain scales.
"Globally, fourth quarter RevPAR growth is anticipated to accelerate from the third quarter, in part due to holiday shifts and the timing of certain large events. Examples include the positive impact of the Paris Olympics and the Euro Cup in the 2024 third quarter, the positive impact of the Republican and Democratic conventions in the 2024 third quarter and then the negative impact of the U.S. presidential election in the 2024 fourth quarter plus [Formula One] in Singapore is shifting from the third quarter last year to the fourth quarter this year. At the end of June, on a global basis, revenues for group, the customer segment where we have the lowest visibility, we're pacing down 2% for the third quarter and pacing up 6% for the fourth quarter reflecting some of these calendar impacts.
"Full-year 2025 revenues were pacing up 3% below the pace we saw a quarter ago primarily due to fewer near-term bookings.
"However, group bookings for future periods have strengthened, with group revenues for 2026 pacing up 8% in the U.S. and Canada and globally, up from 7% a quarter ago. On a global basis, for the full year, we now expect leisure transient and group RevPAR to grow in the low single-digit range. Business transient RevPAR is now expected to be around flat year-over-year with government demand expected to remain weak.
"Government room nights in the U.S. and Canada were down 16% year-over-year in the second quarter, more than in March, but do appear to have stabilized around these levels."
Chris Nassetta, President and CEO, Hilton
"While it's early in the third quarter, we have seen a pickup in non-government business demand. Group RevPAR was roughly flat, with favorable trends in company meetings, largely offset by soft convention business and social events. We did see positive momentum in lead volumes from corporates, with month-over-month sequential growth throughout the quarter, and '26 and '27 group positions are up in the high single digits.
"As we look ahead to the third quarter, we expect RevPAR to be flat to modestly down again, with holidays and calendar shifts continuing to weigh on reported results. On an adjusted basis, we would expect modest RevPAR growth. For the full year, we continue to expect RevPAR growth of flat to up 2% with improving trends in the fourth quarter, driven by a modest increase in demand and easier year-over-year comparisons.
"As we think about our business over the intermediate term, I'm very optimistic. In our largest market, a more favorable regulatory environment, certainty on tax reform, expected settling down on global trade policy, continuation of very healthy corporate profits and significant investments across a multitude of industries, including [artificial intelligence], AI-related and core infrastructure investment, should accelerate economic growth and unlock meaningful increases in travel demand. This matched with very limited industry supply growth should drive stronger RevPAR growth over the next several years."
Joan Bottarini, Chief Financial Officer, Hyatt Hotels Corp.
"We continue to monitor the dynamic macroeconomic environment, and as the second quarter progressed, consumer confidence improved, however, lower chain scales underperformed our full service chain scales, especially in the U.S. We expect lower chain scales in the U.S. to underperform luxury and international markets in the third quarter, which is in line with the expectations that we shared during our first quarter call.
"Our full-year 2025 RevPAR range of 1% to 3% implies RevPAR growth for the balance of the year of between flat to up 2%, and we expect the third quarter to be towards the lower end of our balance of the year range and the fourth quarter at or above the high end of our balance of the year range. For the United States, we expect RevPAR for the balance of the year to be around flat compared to last year. We expect third quarter RevPAR growth to be flat to down slightly, and we expect to return to positive RevPAR growth in the fourth quarter, led by group and business transient as we lap the presidential elections last year.
"For Greater China, visibility remains limited, but as we lap easier comparisons to last year, we believe RevPAR could be up in the low single digits for the balance of the year. We anticipate our properties in Asia Pacific, excluding Greater China, will have the strongest growth in RevPAR of any geographic regions as they continue to benefit from significant international inbound travel. In Europe, we expect RevPAR growth to be flat for the balance of year, with RevPAR growth contracting in the third quarter as we lapse difficult comparisons, including the Olympics in Paris last summer. We expect RevPAR growth to be positive in the fourth quarter."
Patrick Pacious, President and CEO, Choice Hotels International
"The two headwinds — and the whole industry has experienced it — are really international inbound and government travel. Those are the two things that have sort of modestly set back RevPAR expectations.
"I think when we — the reason we're positive is if you look at the U.S. consumer, consumer confidence is trending up, credit card delinquencies are flat. We pointed out in our remarks, gas prices are lower, people are driving more than flying.
"And then you've had some pretty significant catalysts in the kind of middle of the year here. You've got certainty now on tax reform. You've got a solid labor market, the trade policy is sort of settling out. Corporate profits are healthy. And then you've got these catalysts for growth, significant investments in both infrastructure with [generative] AI and all of the efforts that we see going on around that and then the reshoring of American manufacturing.
"So you couple that with the limited hotel supply growth that the industry has seen for the last couple of years and particularly in our segments, it gives us a lot of optimism about the future of RevPAR growth.
"So that's why I think we've had this sort of very choppy first half of the year. The upside case is pretty strong when you look at the industry fundamentals.
"And so that's why when we kind of look at the RevPAR environment, those are the positive aspects. But we are still, as we mentioned, seeing softness from government travel and international inbound."
Bill Hornbuckle, President and CEO, MGM Resorts International
"On the groups and convention side, our bookings are pacing up double digits, thanks to robust 2026 convention calendar that includes the return of [Conexpo-]Con/Agg. The Las Vegas Convention Center is spending $1.6 billion to renovate its legacy campus and expand the West Hall and remains on track to finish by the end of this year.
"We will also benefit from greater Las Vegas convention attendance, particularly with our expansive luxury offerings. Las Vegas also recently celebrated the groundbreaking of the new $1.8 billion MLB stadium at the former site of Tropicana, which is expected to bring 400,000 new visitors annually to Las Vegas. This puts the NFL, the NHL and MLB home venues, which also hosts a significant number of other sports and entertainment events all within 1 mile of each other.
"The resulting golden triangle will be surrounded by MGM properties. And importantly, the Dome Stadium will bring meaningful game and entertainment inventory during the summer mid-week periods, which will increase the value of our rooms during that period."
Scott Schenkel, Chief Financial Officer, Expedia Group
"We expect gross bookings growth of 5% to 7% and revenue growth of 4% to 6%. This includes an estimated 1 point benefit from foreign exchange to bookings and revenue growth at current exchange rates. Adjusted [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] margin is expected to expand by 50 to 100 basis points with no material impact from currency at current exchange rates. For the full year, we expect gross bookings and revenue growth of 3% to 5%, which represents a 1 point increase versus our previous guidance."
Jim Risoleo, President and CEO, Host Hotels & Resorts
"Despite the heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, we continue to outperform our expectations in the second quarter. As a result of our strong performance in the first half of the year, we are increasing our comparable hotel RevPAR and total RevPAR guidance ranges.
"As [Chief Financial Officer Sourav Ghosh] will discuss in more detail, the low end of our guidance range contemplates softer demand in the second half of the year, while the high end assumes a more stable macroeconomic environment.
"Similar to last quarter, we are also providing an approximate rule of thumb for the current environment based on how our portfolio is positioned today.
"For every 100 basis point change in RevPAR, we would expect to see a $32 million to $37 million change in adjusted EBITDAre, which is consistent with the range we provided last quarter."
Jon Bortz, Chairman and CEO, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust
"We remain cautious about the macroeconomic outlook given the continuing uncertainty related to tariff policy and governmental efforts to reduce government spending and the ultimate impact of those policies on the economy in the next few quarters.
"While it's becoming increasingly clear where most tariffs are likely to settle, we believe both businesses and consumers remain hesitant until there's more clarity. Economists continue to forecast slower growth in the back half of this year.
"As a result, we expect the demand growth outlook to remain muted in the second half of this year with [the third quarter] likely the weakest quarter due to its heavier leisure mix.
"Leisure demand is expected to remain relatively price sensitive. ...
"While there's still macro uncertainty, the good news is we see no systemic issues at this time. Employment and corporate profits remain solid. If policy uncertainty improves, that alone could give the economy a boost, which should benefit the hotel industry. We're increasingly optimistic about 2026. If economic uncertainty fades, hotel demand should normalize with GDP growth. Supply is extremely restricted, and our industry fundamentals are set up for a very good year."
Thomas Baltimore, Jr., Chairman, President and CEO, Park Hotels & Resorts
"With respect to fundamentals over the back half of the year, the outlook remains mixed as the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs, elevated inflation and geopolitical issues are expected to continue weighing on travel demand during the third quarter. Both easier comps and improved group travel will help to support strong trends during [the fourth quarter].
"Overall, July results have been modestly weaker than expected, with preliminary RevPAR declining by approximately 4% when you include the nearly 130 basis points of renovation disruption at the Royal Palm South Beach. Recent trends are persisting with continued strength in Orlando, Key West and New York City, offset by modestly softer-than-expected results in Hawaii and Southern California. Based on our current forecast [third quarter] RevPAR is expected to decline by approximately 4% to 5%. Our revised forecast reflects softer than anticipated group demand."
Liz Perkins, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Apple Hospitality REIT
"Looking ahead to the second half of the year, though economic uncertainty remains elevated, it is encouraging to see modest improvements in consumer sentiment and some easing of uncertainty related to policy changes.
"Our reservation booking window is short, and we do not believe these improvements are reflected in our current booking data, which has pulled back slightly year-over-year for August and September, likely impacted at least in part by the shift in Rosh Hashanah into September from October.
"The adjustments we have made to full-year guidance reflect current booking trends and could prove conservative if improvements in the macroeconomic environment drive stronger short-term bookings."
Leslie Hale, President and CEO, RLJ Lodging Trust
"With respect to fundamentals for the back half of the year, our outlook is mixed as the broader macro environment remains uncertain, which is contributing to shorter booking windows and limited visibility. These dynamics will weigh heavily on the third quarter, while favorable calendar shifts, easier comps and improved group travel will help support better lodging fundamental trends during the fourth quarter.
"Relative to the third quarter, we are facing tough citywide comps in markets such as Chicago, which hosted the [Democratic National Convention] last year, as well as Boston, San Diego and New Orleans, which is compounded by the softer-than-expected overall group demand. Additionally, Tampa and Houston will face difficult year-over-year comparisons against last year's hurricanes, which drove outsized FEMA business.
"We expect leisure demand to remain stable, although with continued rate sensitivity, while government-related and international travel are expected to remain soft for the duration of the year. And we will also be impacted by the continuing renovations in South Florida and Hawaii, and the closure of the Austin Convention Center. Against this backdrop, our preliminary July RevPAR is tracking down by mid-single digits year-over-year.
"Relative to the fourth quarter, we anticipate tailwinds from a more favorable holiday calendar, the lapping of the presidential election, strong citywide in a number of our markets, including northern California, and the ramp from our renovations, including Waikiki, as they are delivered.
"Looking at 2026 and beyond, we see an improving setup for the industry, which should benefit from a positive economic backdrop driven by less regulation, extension of lower tax rates, tariff clarity and the expectation of lower borrowing costs to allow for business leaders to make decisions around capital planning and investment. This will occur against an extended period of constrained new supply. With this improving backdrop, our portfolio is especially well-positioned for 2026, given our favorable geographic exposure and our urban footprint, which should allow us to see outsized benefit in an improving demand environment."
Bryan Giglia, CEO, Sunstone Hotel Investors
"In Washington, D.C., our performance was hampered by additional government and government-related cancellations and from several citywide events that underperformed across the market. The third quarter is expected to be more challenging than initially anticipated as the market and our hotel continue to feel the impact of weaker contribution from government business and from affiliated events that rely on government funding. ...
"Our updated outlook assumes we face some incremental headwinds [in Hawaii] in the third quarter with some moderation in the fourth quarter relative to our prior estimates. There are several positives that support an accelerating growth story in the fourth quarter and into 2026. First, the state has allocated marketing funds that will support current and future business. Second, airline capacity is improving, increasing total visitors to the island by 11% compared to 2024. These factors are driving recent increases in weekly transient bookings, which, if it continues, should position us better for Q4 and 2026 at one of the largest EBITDA-producing properties in our portfolio."
Jonathan Stanner, President and CEO, Summit Hotel Properties
"While we expect the operating trends experienced in the second quarter to generally continue into the third quarter, we believe the magnitude of RevPAR decline will moderate from the second quarter levels in our portfolio. July RevPAR declined approximately 3.5% in our same-store portfolio year-over-year.
"However, we are optimistic we will realize incremental improvements in August and September. Encouragingly, we have seen modest gains in our forward pace trends in recent weeks, and our third quarter outlook is ahead of where we were for the second quarter at this time 90 days ago. Our current forecast for the third quarter reflects a RevPAR decline of approximately 3%.
"While demand patterns are broadly stable, our booking window has narrowed in recent months, and we are experiencing more pace volatility than normal, even considering the typical short-term booking nature of our business. This has made forecasting increasingly challenging and widened the range of potential outcomes for the year.
"On our last earnings call, we suggested in-place operating trends were tracking toward the low end of the guidance ranges we provided in February as part of our year-end 2024 earnings report for adjusted EBITDAre and adjusted [funds from operations] and FFO per share. Current operating trends now point us to metrics modestly below the low end of that range, driven exclusively by softer second quarter results and reduced expectations for the third quarter.
"We expect operating trends to improve in the fourth quarter as demand stabilization is augmented with greater macroeconomic and policy clarity and a stronger industry group and convention calendar. It is important to highlight that our expectations have moderated more on the top line than the bottom line as we continue to benefit from aggressive expense management and the share repurchase program, which has mitigated the effects of lost revenue on per share metrics."
Marcel Verbaas, Chairman and CEO, Xenia Hotels & Resorts
"Given recent trends, we have increased our full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDAre and adjusted FFO to reflect our outperformance in the second quarter and an unchanged outlook for the second half of the year. While we expect revenue growth to be muted in the third quarter, we are anticipating a stronger fourth quarter as our group revenue pace for the quarter continues to be highly encouraging."
"As it relates to the third quarter, we always knew that July was going to be a little weaker, particularly because of some of the comparisons to last year, and we highlighted some of the strength that we saw in Houston July of last year. Clearly, lease demand is a little softer like we talked about. The group demand is not quite as robust in a month like July in our portfolio with the seasonality that we have in our portfolio. So that's kind of how the third quarter is shaping up."
