Yet another mall-based specialty apparel retailer, Francesca's, is closing hundreds of stores. Saks Global — parent of Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman — has filed for Chapter 11 and is expected to shut some locations. American Signature Furniture shops are going dark after the chain went to bankruptcy court. And Macy's identified 14 more stores it's shutting.
U.S. store closings are already making headlines this year before January has even ended. But despite that rocky start, several retail analysts are predicting there will be more domestic store openings this year than in 2025, though it won't be a dramatic increase. And at least one analyst forecasts that closings will decline.
An improving economy, lower interest rates, high-income shoppers and somewhat-subsidizing fears about tariffs are helping the retail industry.
Coresight Research is projecting that there will be roughly 5,500 store openings and 7,900 store closings this year, according to John Mercer, head of global research at the retail data company. That would represent about 4% more store debuts than last year's 5,270 openings and about 4% less closings than the 8,270 in 2025, he said. The closings are still expected to again outpace openings.
Another retail analytics firm, Telsey Advisory Group, in a report released Thursday similarly projected an increase in U.S. store openings, but a very slight one. This year it expects store openings — excluding restaurants — to accelerate slightly and rise 1.4% year over year, compared with just a 0.7% increase in fiscal 2025. Telsey sees beauty, off-price and discount retailers expanding while luxury chains and department stores contract.
Brandon Svec, national director of U.S. retail analytics for CoStar Group, had another take.
"We're entering 2026 with store closures trending lower after a back half of 2025 that saw very few large announcements," Svec said. "There will be pockets of weakness such as casual dining, [quick service restaurants] and Walgreens as their new ownership right-sizes the fleet, and we've already seen movement from players like GameStop. But overall, I expect openings and closures to be flat to slightly down from 2025."
2025 was better than expected
In a bright spot, store closings last year fell well below the 15,000 that Coresight had projected. That 15,000 would have more than double the number in 2024 and surpassed two other years when store closings peaked, in 2019 and 2020, at roughly 10,000 each of those years.
As it turned out, there were far fewer retail bankruptcies and liquidations than Coresight expected in 2025, which resulted in fewer store closings, according to Mercer. And another factor was that tariffs had less of an impact on retail than expected, Mercer said.
"A lot of these things were less negative than they could have been," he said.
Interest rate cuts and consumer confidence holding up were also among the factors helping retailers out, according to Mercer. In addition, the pace of chains closing and also rolling out new stores is cyclical, he added.
"These openings and closings, they trend," he said. "You have peak years and then they have a dip, up or down. And this year looks like it's going to be a down in terms of closings, maybe an up in terms of openings."
This year marks a period of incremental change, "not a kind of inflection point," according to Mercer.
A strong stock market and an expected uptick in international tourists coming to the United States in 2026 should also help the retail sector, particularly luxury, he said.
'Swing factors' for retail market
Mercer also cited several macroeconomic tailwinds spilling over from last year and bolstering the retail sector in 2026, including affluent consumers keeping up their spending and interest rates and inflation dipping.
The "big swing factors" affecting store openings and closings this year "will be the consumer and the credit markets," according to Svec.
"If the labor backdrop holds and real wages stay positive, and retailers can navigate upcoming refinancing needs, there should be enough demand to support a healthy, positive mix," he said.
Last year, retailers remained cautious as tariff implementation shifted, according to Telsey.
"Many companies revised their capex guidance lower for [fiscal 2025] and in some instances, reduced or postponed store remodels where possible," Telsey said in its report, referring to a company's projected capital expenditures on physical assets. "Leases for new store openings in [fiscal 2025] had largely already been signed and were underway, so for the most part, new store openings for 2025 held steady."
The data firm said it "will be listening for commentary on upcoming calls during the next earnings season about capex guidance for 2026 and plans for store openings and remodels."
There have been 733 U.S. store closures and 1,201 openings unveiled to date in 2026, according to Coresight.
Closings create opportunities
In its report, Telsey cited Saks Global's Chapter 11 filing earlier this month. The luxury retail giant plans to optimize its brick-and-mortar fleet as part of the proceeding. Late last year, the company had already said it planned to shut 10 of its Saks Off Fifth stores.
"Bankruptcies and store closures continue to provide space needs in 2025 and beyond," Telsey said. "These new bankruptcies present opportunities for surviving retailers to acquire additional retail space, enabling off-price and beauty retailers to expand their presence and enter new markets with favorable locations and terms they may not be able to secure otherwise. In fact, these locations have competitive interest from a number of retailers and demand has remained high given overall limited supply."
Telsey also referenced Francesca's plans to close down its store fleet, with liquidation sales already in progress at its locations.
Widespread store closures "such as Francesca's (women's boutique clothing chain) recent announcement to shutter all 450 stores across 45 states provide continuous opportunities for other retailers seeking real estate locations that may be more optimal than the existing fleet," Telsey said.
Last year, the top five U.S. chains in terms of store closings were Rite Aid, Joann, Party City, Big Lots and Claire's, according to Coresight. The retailers that stacked up as the top five in store openings were Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Aldi and 7-Eleven, Coresight said.
U.S. store closings need to be put in context and don't "mean that physical retail is being decimated," Mercer said.
"The U.S. does have about a million stores," he said. "So, there is natural churn and there is demand for real estate. The number of new [retail] developments is still relatively low versus historically. So, there's limited new supply coming in. So, all this ties together. ... If there are any negative changes it is more incremental once you take a look at the overall picture. But some of that is natural — to be expected — as people use digital channels more, etc. There is going to be a slight incremental shift."