"Man was born to live in the convulsions of anxiety or in the lethargy of boredom". It was with this phrase from Voltaire's Candide that economist Jean-Marc Daniel introduced his remarks on economic weather at a market briefing organized by Colliers.
The "lethargy of boredom" is more or less what the office rental market is experiencing. Let's be frank. The figures forQ2 in the Paris Region are bad, if not surprising, with a 21% drop in take-up compared to the same quarter in 2024. Over a sliding 12-month period, take-up stood at 1.7 million m², below the lows of 2009 and 2013.
And it was the "convulsions of uncertainty" that really weighed on companies' decision-making. The volume of large transactions, those over 5,000 m², fell by 30%. There was an urgent need to procrastinate.
If the results are bad, are they really that worrying? In other words, is the Île-de-France office market showing signs of stabilization?
Those who want to scare themselves will look at the level of available supply, which exploded by 20% in one year, reaching a record 6 million m² of empty space and an unprecedented vacancy rate of over 10%. They will be alarmed by the time it takes to sell space, which on average exceeds 42 months of take-up. They will despair at the negative net absorption of nearly 800,000 m².
Those who wish to be reassured can congratulate themselves on the resilience of rental values and the €1,000/m² mark passed in the Paris CBD. They can be satisfied with the stabilization of market values after a steady 32% decline between Q3 2022 and Q1 2025. They will be able to tell themselves that this is the ideal time to return to buying assets offering annual yields close to 8%.
Those looking for reasons to break out of their lethargy will be clinging to the few positive signals flashing on the horizon. A timid upturn in activity in the service sector, according to the latest PMI index, and business confidence at an eight-month high. Growth in office employment in Europe remains the main driver of demand. A return to the office is beginning to take shape, particularly among the major corporates.
If we can't read the coffee grounds, we'll be keeping a close eye on the half-yearly results of listed real estate companies, particularly those with office exposure. This will enable us to see whether investors are becoming anxious or lethargic.