The Trump administration officially said this week that due to the U.S. government shutdown, it's unlikely it will release October the federal jobs report or the consumer price index report, even with the government finally reopening.
Apparently, there's some confusion over whether that means the September reports that were supposed to be released in October or the report of data that would have been collected in October and released in November, NBC reports.
Either way, we're going to miss at least one month of federal data on jobs and consumer pricing.
The good(?) news is that even without the government data, we still have other sources of information available to us to help us put the pieces together. It may not be the whole picture, but it's certainly not a blank page.
Payroll processor ADP reported U.S. employers added 42,000 private sector jobs in October. The goods-producing industries saw an overall increase of 9,000 jobs, with natural resources/mining gaining 7,000 and construction gaining 5,000 while manufacturing dropped 3,000 jobs.
The service-providing industries added 33,000 new jobs with trade/transportation/utilities growing by 47,000 jobs, financial activities by 11,000 and education/health services by 26,000. On the opposite end were losses in information by 17,000 jobs, professional/business services by 15,000, leisure-hospitality by 6,000 and other services by 13,000.
Year-over-year pay growth was flat for the month, holding at 4.5% for job-stayers and 6.7% for those changing jobs.
"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year," said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in the news release. "Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced."
The ADP report came out one day before the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report that found U.S.-based employers laid off 153,074 jobs in October, a 175% year-over-year increase.
“October’s pace of job-cutting was much higher than average for the month. Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes. Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in the news release about the report.
Challenger added: “This is the highest total for October in over 20 years, and the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008. Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the landscape."
There's some good news according to Bloomberg. OpenBrand, which tracks prices daily from online and physical retailers and marketplaces, found U.S. consumer durables and personal goods decelerated in October.
"The group’s measure of prices for big-ticket goods and personal-care products rose 0.22% last month compared with a 0.48% increase in September," according to the article.
The slowing rise in prices is good news for consumers, who could use some good news on prices. Bloomberg reported just a few days after the OpenBrand article that a recent Harris Poll found 62% of respondents said the cost of everyday items increased over the past month. Half said the price increases were difficult to afford.
That Harris Poll also found 48% believed it would take them at least four months to find a new job of similar quality if they lost their current job.
So hey, the overall good news is that even without the official government data, there are enough other sources of information to help us see the story more clearly. It's not exactly the most uplifting story at the moment, but at least we aren't going forward through complete fog. Right?
You can reach me at bwroten@hotelnewsnow.com as well as on LinkedIn.
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