Hoteliers are seemingly on the naughty list this year, with the timing of both the Christmas and New Year's holidays hitting midweek and possibly discouraging travel.
With both Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve falling on Wednesday, STR senior director of analytics Isaac Collazo said that's close to the worst timing possible for hotel occupancy in the U.S.
"It's going to feel weaker based on history," he said. "Everything points that it's going to be weaker."
Christmas Day being on a Thursday is at least better but still not ideal, Collazo said.
Based on data going back to 2000, hotel occupancy on Christmas Eve averages just 31.5% when it falls on a Wednesday, the lowest mark for any day of the week. The highest is Saturdays when it hits 39.3%.
Christmas Day falling on Thursday is tied for the second-worst outcome for hoteliers at 37.2% compared to 34.7% on Tuesdays and the high water mark of 41.9% on Saturdays.
In total, the eight-day holiday period sees its worst occupancies when Christmas Eve falls on a Wednesday, down to 47.1% compared to 50.7% when it falls on a Saturday.
This all comes on the heels of a prolonged difficult stretch for the hospitality industry and dwindling hopes for a fourth-quarter turnaround to maintain momentum heading into 2026.
"We have a weaker demand environment overall, and then the placement of the holidays is going to feel weaker," Collazo said. "That's what the data shows."
Priya Chandnani, senior vice president of sales, revenue and distribution strategy at Sage Hospitality Group, said her company has been seeing slower-than-usual bookings pace for its upscale hotels for the holiday season but steady pace for its luxury and upper-upscale properties.
But one area where there's been a clear decline is in social, military, educational, religious and fraternal groups — commonly known in the hospitality industry as SMERF business.
"We're not seeing a lot of group SMERF book for December now," she said. "Some of it could be the booking window. I do feel like the booking window has shortened this year compared to last year, but we're pivoting very quickly toward a more leisure-driven discount strategy."
Sage's patterns follows broader hotel industry trends of bifurcation with demand and spending remaining strong among more affluent spenders and continually weakening at among consumers with lower incomes.
The silver lining of all this might be how it affects the outlook for late 2026, with the fourth quarter of next year set up for easier comparisons for a number of reasons.
Both Christmas Day 2026 and New Year's Day 2027 will fall perfectly on a Friday, which analysts at Truist recently described as "a perfect storm of holiday shifts."
And Chandnani said there is some hope going into early 2026.
"If you take away the noise from [comparisons to the the 2025 presidential inauguration], we're seeing transient demand pace is flat to up," she said, adding that booking for group business is also strong. "We're actually ahead to the same time last year for the first quarter, and I'm feeling pretty optimistic there. What I'm more concerned about is the second quarter and third quarter and how they're going to form, but it's early days."