Here's a thought I hear from some hotelier or another at basically every conference or event I head to these days: If there's a recession looming, the effects will pale in comparison to what the hotel industry has had to survive since the onset of the pandemic.
I get the logic behind this, but I'm also left to wonder just how true it might be. Or to put that a different way, does it really hurt less to get punched in the face after you'd been stabbed in the stomach?
I do agree that the overall resiliency of the hospitality industry is beyond doubting at this point, but with all the scar tissue left by the crises of the past two-plus years, I think it might be foolhardy to outright dismiss the risks ahead.
At the same time, I understand that many hoteliers out there might look at a potential recession as less of a risk and more of an opportunity. Hotels are still understaffed, and a broad — but hopefully shallow — recession could go a long way to helping to alleviate ongoing labor issues. And pools of private capital continue to sit on the sideline after various investment funds amassed cash to jump on a wave of distressed assets that just simply never came. Those investors would probably joyously greet a downturn that would reshape the transactions environment in their favor.
But with all of that said, as a human being in the hotel industry for the past few years, I think it's far to say that the vast majority — from the line level to the C-suite — have simply been through enough, and many people are just emotionally exhausted at this point.
Keep in mind that the vast majority of people within the hotel industry never believed they would face a crisis that reached to the depths the COVID-19 pandemic pushed us all into, and now because of that, they're struggling with massive anxiety and uncertainty. Even the threat of a recession looming over them, whether it turns out to be a small, technical recession, a massive depression or none of the above, may be enough to cause more worry — perhaps enough worry to drive them out of the hotel industry altogether to look for greener pastures.
So I think that's where my concerns come down on this. Yes, the pandemic tested the mettle of hoteliers in ways never seen before, and many of them weathered the storm and came out the other side stronger for it. But another downturn and the troubles associated with that might be enough to push many over the edge.
We're in an era where people are more cognizant than ever about their work-life balance, and I'd venture to guess that very, very few people want their work-life balance to resemble that of Sisyphus. With everything going on in the world, we've all earned a bit of a breather, so hopefully the good times come along sooner rather than later and stick around for as long as possible.
Let me know what you think on Twitter, LinkedIn or via email.
The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Hotel News Now or CoStar Group and its affiliated companies. Bloggers published on this site are given the freedom to express views that may be controversial, but our goal is to provoke thought and constructive discussion within our reader community. Please feel free to contact an editor with any questions or concern.