Unemployment jumps, hitting highest rate since 2021
The U.S. job market showed cracks in October and November, weakening as the nation’s unemployment rate hit a four-year high.
After revising the September jobs numbers down, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the loss of more than 100,000 jobs in October, mostly due to a nosedive in federal government positions. November painted a rosier employment picture as nonfarm employment added 64,000 jobs, with 46,000 positions in healthcare and 28,000 in construction. Still, those figures weren’t enough to erase October’s job losses.
"Taken together, the October-November jobs data don't change our view that the labor market is steady enough for the Federal Reserve to keep policy on hold until mid-2026," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in a statement. Despite October's losses, both months saw "healthy" payroll gains, Vanden Houten added, expanding by an average 75,000 over the past three months. Still, she said, those figured could get revised back down.
The number of unemployed people in the U.S. hit 7.8 million for a rate of 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September and from 4.2% a year earlier.
"We think the government shutdown may have contributed to the increase," Vanden Houten said. "The number of permanent job losers, which had been ticking higher, declined. Labor force growth also contributed to the increase."
Retail sales are flat
U.S. retail sales tallied $732.6 billion in October, marking only a 0.5% increase from September, figures from the U.S. Census Bureau showed Tuesday.
“The retail sales report for October was a dud, but the underlying details offer more encouraging signals for [fourth-quarter] consumer spending and an elevated starting point for the critical two-month stretch for holiday sales,” Wells Fargo economist Tim Quinlan said in a research note Tuesday.
The retail data, which typically would have been released in November but was delayed by the federal shutdown, reflects the dollar value of all products and services sold to U.S. consumers, from cars to groceries — including sales tax. Furniture and home furnishing stores recorded a 2.3% jump — $11.27 billion in sales in October, up from $10.88 billion in September.
"The 2.3% increase in furniture and home furnishings sales is an encouraging sign for independent retailers, many of whom have been navigating a challenging retail environment," Peter Theran, CEO of the Home Furnishings Association, told CoStar News by email. "It suggests consumers are re-engaging with the home and making more deliberate purchases centered on comfort, quality, and value."
In a separate report that tracked October to November activity, the National Retail Federation said it also noticed month-to-month sales were flat, but year-to-year numbers were much stronger. Furniture and home furnishing store sales were up 0.01% between October and November and up 0.5% year over year in November, the federation said.
"Many retailers continue to operate in a dynamic environment shaped by interest rates, housing activity, and ongoing cost pressures," Theran added. "While one month does not define a trend, this growth is a positive signal heading into the final months of the year and reinforces the resilience of independent home furnishings retailers who have adapted quickly to changing consumer needs."
Office use edges up before year-end holidays
After a noticeable rebound last week, office use ticked up again, with 10 tracked U.S. cities averaging 56.3% of their pre-pandemic in-person attendance for the week ended Dec. 10, Kastle Systems reported. The uptick comes ahead of the year-end holiday season, which historically brings a plunge in office use; last year, the final week of December averaged 30% and first week of January just 19.1%.
Based on anonymous keycard data from Kastle's office-using clients, averages rose in eight of 10 tracked cities. Texas cities held the top three spots, with Austin's average office usage rising to another high of 77.7%, followed by Dallas with 64.1% and Houston with 61.7%. Still, Dallas was one of the two cities that saw a declining average this week, alongside Los Angeles, which averaged 49.1%.