I've had such an eager eye out for the return of Chinese travelers to the U.S., as many of you have as well, and we're going to have to wait a little longer, or maybe a lot longer.
Global travel patterns fascinate me. From airlift capacity and routes to advertising in feeder markets, so much goes on behind the scenes that determines why, when and how any given traveler from one place winds up in another destination.
And post-pandemic, we have a front-row seat to watch these patterns reestablish. This is a once-in-a-lifetime anthropology experiment, almost. Picture it like a giant map and we control the variables of travel: Increase airlift here, and watch all the little dots representing individual tourists fly over an ocean and several continents. Restrict visa restrictions here, and watch those tourist dots disappear, and so on.
I think about these phenomena of travel dynamics a lot with Chinese travelers, particularly group tourists. From a purely U.S. perspective, it was simple: A lot of Chinese groups came to the U.S. Then the pandemic hit and they stopped. Now we are in the position to see how and to what extent they return.
Timing-wise, we're at a turning point. In early August, the Chinese government finally lifted restrictions on group travel here and to other countries, but of course it's not as simple as just hopping on a plane.
By the end of this month, most major airlines with routes between the U.S. and China have committed to doubling flight volume in both directions. That will help with that particular variable.
But there are so many other factors at play, from visa wait times to concerns over gun violence. Yep, you read that right.
Here are a few articles I've found interesting lately on the topic:
- How The Steep Decline In Chinese Tourists Will Cost The U.S. More Than $20 Billion from Forbes.
- Crisis? What crisis? China's domestic tourism is booming, opinion piece by Nicholas Spiro in South China Morning Post.
- Portrait of Asian International Travelers from MMGY Global.
For context, most agencies put the number of Chinese travelers to the U.S. pre-pandemic in the 3 million ballpark, annually. For this year, the rough estimation is that number will be less than a million.
Now let's go back to that idea that how people travel is a cultural and anthropological study, in many ways. People make decisions to go certain places, and ergo make decisions not to go others.
The U.S. has rested on its laurels for a long time as a destination of choice. And to be sure, it still is. But it's interesting to consider the flip side: What are the factors that deter someone from choosing to visit a certain place? Specifically, what is holding back Chinese travelers from the U.S.?
The articles above jibe with what the travel and hotel industry experts and organizations say as well. The big deterrents are outrageously long visa wait times and reduced flight volume, though that's changing. Also consider the fact that a lot of Chinese travelers — like a lot of people everywhere — simply let their passports expire during the pandemic and renewal can be a time-consuming hassle.
Beyond those factors, Chinese residents are rediscovering the joys of their own country! The government has incentivized domestic travel to a point, and this week's Golden Week travel numbers likely will further underscore that domestic tourism has growing appeal.
Will this highly sought-after group of tourists return to U.S. shores? Of course they will. Airlift is on the rise, lobbying groups are putting a lot of weight into visa program overhauls and the lure of travel persists.
But I'm going to leave you with one factor deterring many Chinese travelers from visiting the U.S. according to several of these surveys, and it's a problem the hotel industry can't fix.
It's gun violence. One survey from travel research firm Destination Analysts reports that gun violence is the No. 1 disincentive named by Chinese, Australian and Canadian residents considering traveling to the U.S.
The MMGY survey linked above said nearly 80% of those Asian international travelers polled had concerns over personal safety, and those concerns outweighed concerns over the cost of airfare and hotels.
It's a tough note to end on. I can't fix this one, and it's huge.
What I ask right now is that you think about it and talk about it. Think about it and talk about it when you encounter groups who lobby for our industry. It's a big deal.
Email me, or find me on Twitter or LinkedIn.
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