Pricing trends for shipping containers have started to decline after reaching recent high levels.
Prices for the Xeneta Shipping Index, focused on containers shipped from major Asian ports to the West Coast, show an average decline of more than 60% from the recent highs in June of 2025, pointing to a moderation in import activity through late 2025.
This expected decline in imports is in line with the National Retail Federation, which expects import cargo volume at the nation's major container ports this year to fall below 2024's import volume.
The International Monetary Fund's PortWatch trade monitor's high-frequency container import estimates for the West Coast, shown in the blue line in the chart above, have yet to show a drop in container imports.
Pricing data for shipping containers tends to be a leading indicator of import activity by as much as over a month. Current import activity levels still reflect the increase in container imports driven by retailers scrambling to frontload inventories ahead of tariffs. That said, the bulk of this import surge was mainly received by the ports of Los Angeles-Long Beach, which saw its busiest month ever in July.
However, other West Coast ports did not see such an increase, and logistics properties near these ports continue to see weaker demand despite this flux in imports.
In fact, availability rates at large and newer stabilized logistics properties located within an hour's drive of major West Coast ports have been rising noticeably since the end of 2024.
For now, the fastest increases in space availability for stabilized properties remain concentrated on the West Coast. A recent CoStar news article noted that these ports are most exposed to Chinese and Southeast Asian imports.
Forecasters correctly predicted an over 40% drop in imports after the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on April 2, dubbed Liberation Day by the president, based on similar pricing dynamics that we see today. That leads us to expect another sharp drop in West Coast imports to happen again later this year, curbing demand growth expectations for logistics properties serving these ports, at least through early 2026.
While this expected weaker demand for logistics space is concentrated in West Coast ports for now, prolonged trade uncertainty and a weakening labor market present further challenges for port-centric properties across all ports.
For now, the sharpest drop in imports from the recent highs has been felt in the West Coast ports of Oakland, California, and Tacoma and Seattle in Washington state.
Over the last year, stabilized availability has risen mainly in logistics properties near the ports of Oakland and Tacoma.
That said, given that most major U.S. ports are seeing subdued import activity relative to recent highs, the increased space availability will likely spread across more geographies.
While East Coast ports have not felt the brunt of the trade war thus far, they have also seen more construction activity than their West Coast counterparts.
Although construction activity has moderated in the last year, Houston, Norfolk, Virginia, as well as Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Jacksonville in Florida still have elevated logistics construction pipelines. This additional supply could impede an acceleration in rent gains if property stabilization timelines continue to lengthen.
Fallout from lower import activity levels may spread beyond properties in the immediate vicinity of ports. For example, major logistics hubs, including the Inland Empire and Lehigh Valley, which tend to rely on strong import activity, will continue to see sluggish demand if trade activity does not reverse course.
The effects of the current trade war are just beginning to take shape in logistics data. Keeping an eye on import trends and port-centered logistics properties remains essential, as any eventual recovery in their performance can signal the inflection point for broader improvement in logistics vacancy and rent growth.