Retail sales increase
U.S. retail sales increased in March despite rising worries among consumers about the effects of tariffs on employment and inflation.
Estimates of U.S. retail and foodservice sales rose 1.4% to $734.9 billion from February, according to the advance monthly retail sales report issued by the U.S. Census Bureau. The figure is a 4.6% increase from March 2024.
Even with the sales increase, consumers are worried about tariffs, Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, said in a statement about the Census Bureau report.
“Retail sales strengthened in March, supported by continued solid growth in income, lower energy costs and bigger-than-usual tax refunds that all helped support household budgets,” Kleinhenz said. “However, there is no question that the consumer is not feeling great given the confusion of policy announcements from Washington. On-again, off-again rising tariffs and resulting turmoil in the stock market and world economy are clearly impacting consumer concerns about higher prices and future consumer spending growth.”
Unemployment and inflation concerns build
Consumers are growing concerned about the job market and higher prices, according to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Respondents to the Survey of Consumer Expectations conducted in March indicated that their outlook on inflation is souring and that they expect inflation to speed up over the next 12 months to about 3.6%, according to the survey results. It’s the highest expected rate of inflation since the survey’s October 2023 findings.
At the same time, expectations that the unemployment rate in the United States will grow over the next 12 months climbed to their highest reading since April 2020. And more respondents think they have a higher probability of losing their job in the next 12 months.
The findings come after another widely watched survey from the University of Michigan revealed its fourth consecutive month of declining consumer sentiment. It’s a trend that has manifested as concerns about tariffs and a wider economic downturn have plagued the market.
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations provides a glimpse of how consumers feel about the economy, including price growth, housing prices and labor.
New car affordability
The affordability of new cars improved again in March, although the Trump administration’s trade war with allies poses the risk of new car prices rising later this year, according to a new study.
The estimated average rate on auto loans rose 4 basis points to 10.14% in March, although the rate was 45 basis points lower than in March 2024, according to the monthly Vehicle Affordability Index issued by Cox Automotive and Moody’s Analytics. The average price of new vehicles fell 0.2% to $47,462 in March compared to February, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book.
The improvement in affordability could be short-lived because of tariffs, according to Cox Automotive and Moody’s. Trump has levied tariffs on steel, aluminum and other materials used to make cars that are imported from Canada, Mexico and China.
“The real test [for new-car affordability] will come in April, when tariffs are likely to have more of an impact on the economy and the auto market,” Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive, said in a news release.
Oil inventories continue to rise
Inventories of crude oil in the U.S. increased for the third straight week amid the heightened risk of a global trade war and sharply declining oil prices.
Commercial crude-oil stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 515,000 barrels to 442.9 million barrels for the week that ended April 11, according to the Energy Information Administration. Oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased 299,000 barrels to 397 million barrels, and oil stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, terminal complex fell 654,000 barrels to 25.1 million barrels.
Brent crude oil fell below $60 per barrel last week, the first time it has dropped below that level in four years, according to Bloomberg. It has since risen to about $65 per barrel as China outlined the steps it will require from Trump to resume talks about tariffs.