Limited liquidity
There's no denying it, the investment market has lost "momentum" in recent months, as Up! Real Estate explains, after the first quarter was marked by two major deals: the Kering portfolio and the 15% stake in the Westfield Forum des Halles shopping center.
"The persistent caution of investors in a still uncertain economic and geopolitical context is reflected in a reduction in the number of transactions and limited liquidity," observes the consultancy co-founded by Bruno Ancelin and Fabrice Fubert.
At the end of the third quarter of 2025, nearly €2.3 billion had been invested in this market, down 4% on the same period in 2024 and 8% on 2023. Even so, retail accounts for 26% of the total volume invested in commercial property, supported by several acquisitions of mixed-use assets known as "exceptional transactions," following the two flagship deals signed in the first quarter by Ardian and CDC Investissement Immobilier.
Significant transactions over the summer included Pontegadea's acquisition of 223 rue Saint-Honoré from Hines France for €170 million, and Immobilière Dassault's €100 million purchase of 88 rue de Rivoli.
In the first nine months of the year, summarizes Up! Real Estate, there were six deals larger than €100 million, including just one classic large-scale transaction — the acquisition of the Saint-Genis 2 shopping center by Mercialys for €136 million — compared with ten deals in the same period in 2024, which "illustrates the decline in market depth." "In this climate, club strategies are gaining ground, enabling us to pool risk and limit capital commitments," the company reports.
An appetite for the ground floor
Jessica Jaoui, director of retail investment at JLL, assures us: "French investors should continue to dominate the market, while international players, value-added or core oriented, stand ready to invest when attractive opportunities emerge, creating a diversified investment ecosystem."
It's true that the retail sector remains largely dominated by domestic funds, with SCPIs remaining particularly active, following the example of Cristal Life, managed by Inter Gestion REIM, which acquired 31 rue de Béthune, Lille, from Redevco, for €33.3 million.
This symbolizes a real appetite for ground-floor space, which will account for 65% of investments by 2025. According to Up! Real Estate, this asset class confirms its dominant position, driven by the vitality of the Paris market and the ongoing interest of luxury players. Paris accounts for almost 90% of investment volumes, reflecting an almost exclusive focus on the capital and a lack of dynamism in other regions.
While the Kering deal will go down in history, other noteworthy transactions have enlivened the market, such as the sale of BHV Homme acquired by NJJ, Xavier Niel, and Trustone REIM for €47 million, and the acquisition of 64 rue Bonaparte by Mata Capital. Prime rates now appear to have stabilized at between 4.00% and 4.25%, compared with 4.00% previously, notes Up! Real Estate.
The market share of shopping centers stands at 20%, compared with 23% in 2024 and 36% in 2023. In the first nine months of the year, total volume was €450 million, compared with €930 million in 2023 and €500 million in 2024, confirming a "downturn in activity." In the food sector, the recovery is gradual, with the Les Mousquetaires group acquiring a casino portfolio on a sale-leaseback basis for €71 million, and the sale of a portfolio of nine Carrefour stores to Supermarket Income REIT for €36.7 million, corresponding to a yield of 6.80%.
What about the end of the year?
Uncertainty remains. According to Up! Real Estate, the final quarter could prove to be a period of arbitrage, marked by the closing of certain divestment programs already initiated or, on the contrary, by increased caution on the part of players. This is confirmed by Romain Galerneau, head of retail leasing and investment properties at CBRE France: "The level of activity between now and the end of the year remains uncertain. Arbitrage quarter? Significant increase in disposals to boost volumes? Or, on the contrary, an unfavorable economic and political context generating even more caution?" "We can nevertheless hope for a landing slightly higher than 2024, provided that the volume handled exceeds €500m in Q4," he points out. Among the deals expected to be signed is the increase in Serris REIM's portfolio at the La Valentine center in Marseille.
In its latest dedicated study, BNP Paribas Real Estate anticipates that "a large number of transactions for substantial amounts are expected over the next few months, proving that the market is looking for positive signals in order to move forward again."
Stable rents
In Paris, Savills France notes that vacancy has been on a downward trend overall since the beginning of 2025 in prime arteries. But this is also true outside Paris for the most sought-after locations, on high streets, in retail parks and even in shopping centers. Here, the available supply is limited to normal turnover. The picture is obviously different in small towns and many medium-sized cities, as well as in secondary locations.
Today, opening decisions are carefully considered and weighed, with the expecation that increases in value are limited. In fact, "the context is one of stable rents," analyzes the consultancy.
Around the Champs-Élysées, in Paris' Golden Triangle, Zone A rents are still between €13,000 and €15,000 per square meter. This has nothing to do with the values observed in retail parks where, even for the best of them in the Paris region, rents will fluctuate between €250 and €300 for small and medium-sized surfaces. This price attractiveness largely explains the success of this business model over the past few years. Shopping centers are more expensive, with rents rising to between €1,400 and €1,600 in regional centers.
Retailers still attracted to France
According to Savills France, whose retail department is headed by Christian Nehmé, "France, and Paris in particular, is still the focus of attention for both young and more mature retailers." "In Europe, London is the only city able to overshadow Paris in this respect," says the council, which highlights the summer season's visitor numbers, up 3.7% on 2024, the Olympic year. The Olympic Games have contributed to this attractiveness, by changing the international positioning of Paris.
"This perceptual mutation is the real legacy of the Games, creating a lasting showcase effect that continues to attract international brands," assures Savills. So, apart from the example of RH at 23 avenue des Champs-Élysées, Paris, or Shein, which has continued to fuel controversy in recent weeks, new retailers continue to set up shop. Meanwhile, other retailers are continuing to expand their network by opening new outlets, such as Oysho, Polène, H&M and Pop Mart, which is setting up its flagship store at 51-53 Haussmann, as revealed by Business Immo on June 18.
