The most recent Department of Commerce data shows where Americans are traveling abroad, and European cities continue to be favorites.
The data is compiled at the airport level, which makes city pair analysis possible. In general, cities such as London and Paris are attracting more Americans now than they did in the first half of 2019. Conversely, New York and L.A. are less popular with travelers from Paris or London.
The higher number of outbound fliers is likely a reaction to U.S. travelers taking the opportunity to do what they could not in 2021 and 2022 — to go abroad. Even though recently the dollar has lost some of its strength against the Euro, air trips are often booked well in advance and were likely conceived and booked when the dollar had more purchasing power.
Conversely, Europe is going through an economic slowdown, maybe even a recession, and consumer sentiment drives travel spending. A possible recession likely puts a damper on travel enthusiasm and moves travel demand to more domestic or drive-to destinations.
The passenger arrival data to and from China makes it clear that there is little traffic flow in either direction. Because of the war in Ukraine, the air space over Russia is closed or severely restricted, forcing airlines to change their routing or abandon the flights altogether. Little relief for a full resumption of these fights is in sight, just as the Chinese tourism market is re-opening.
Looking ahead, the American flight demand to Europe will likely remain robust, strong price increases for long-haul flights notwithstanding. But the American travelers taking their dollars abroad are not being fully reciprocated by European or Asian travelers, leading to demand shortfalls in major American markets for the time being.