I swear I'm not a pessimist, at least not most days.
We're closing out earnings call season, and after listening in on, writing about and reading stories about hotel brand companies' and real estate investment trusts' expectations for 2026, it's clear everyone is really, really hoping it's not like last year.
There's a good amount of optimism around the calendar of major events in the U.S. this year. Obviously, the World Cup matches could provide a major boost of inbound international and domestic travel demand. There will be some domestic demand as well for the America 250 events. The holidays this year have lined up to avoid disrupting midweek business travel while giving a little extra to weekend leisure demand. Overall, people still want to travel and are willing to spend their money to do so.
We saw a lot of disruptions to travel demand last year, and the earnings calls spelled them all out. Liberation Day. Canadian travelers going elsewhere. The effects of Department of Government Efficiency cuts. The federal government shutdown. Et cetera.
As much as we like to think "New year, new me," simply putting up a new calendar on the wall doesn't really change a whole lot.
It's the end of February and we've already seen a handful of disruptions that have created different levels of uncertainty. The limited federal government shutdown that led to the temporary halt of TSA Pre-Check lanes at airports. The U.S. Supreme Court's decision striking down how the Trump administration implemented tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — only to be met by announcements of a replacement tariff of 10% under a different law followed by threats of increasing it to 15%. There's also some question over what this all means for the international trade deals negotiated since Liberation Day. There are lingering concerns over international inbound demand for the World Cup given the extra fees as well as fears over being detained either at their point of entry or while in a host market.
These are just a few of the ones we have encountered or know about. To paraphrase a quote, there are still a lot of unknown unknowns out there.
The past isn't necessarily a great predictor of the future, but at the same time, it can at least give you an idea of what to watch out for.
The good news, though, is that after both the pandemic and all of the disruptions we've seen in recent years, the hotel industry has gotten better about quickly adapting to the situation.
It'd just be nice, though, if it wasn't necessary.
You can reach me at bwroten@hotelnewsnow.com as well as on LinkedIn.
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