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Supply Wave in Nashville is Starting to Hit Sumner County

CoStar Market Insights: How Will the Influx of These Units Affect the Market?
June 6, 2018
Aerial of the 77-unit Water’s Edge Lakefront Condos, which is slated to deliver by the fourth quarter of 2018, in Gallatin, TN



Nashville has expanded its apartment inventory at the fastest rate in the country this cycle, increasing supply by more than 30 percent. The West End/Central Business District and Wilson County areas have experienced the strongest growth, both nearly doubling inventories over the past eight years.

Although Sumner County has only increased its inventory by 25 percent this cycle, it appears that this submarket may be the next to get hit with the Nashville construction wave. With numerous job announcements and expansions in the area, it's easy to understand why developers are attracted to this community. Roughly 1,500 new jobs have been announced by Beretta USA, ABC Technologies, Gap and Dorman Products in this industrial-focused Sumner County.

Most recently, Dorman Products announced plans to add more than 200 employees over the next few years, making the total headcount of 600 in Portland. Gap currently employs around 800 people and has announced a $42 million expansion plan that will add 500 jobs to the submarket over the next few years. Additionally, Beretta moved its headquarters in 2016, adding nearly 500 jobs in the area. Sumner County also contains Dollar General’s headquarters, which employs around 1,000 people. Many of these new jobs are manufacturing and logistics, which are typically lower-paying, fueling demand for multifamily units in the area.

Sumner County had a significant supply surge last cycle. From 2008 to 2010, supply additions were outsized, and Sumner received more than 1,200 units, which is about a third of the total units built across the metropolitan area during those years. After a boost in overall supply, construction slowed and shifted to other submarkets such as Murfreesboro, West End/CBD and Williamson County. After many of these submarkets appeared to have been overbuilt and vacancies in Sumner County hit a cyclical low of almost 4 percent, developers have shifted efforts to this fast-growing submarket.

Virtually all units that are underway are clustered around Nashville Pike in Gallatin. And while 15 percent of inventory under construction seems high, solid job- and household-growth in the forecast should keep vacancies below the metro average.


CoStar Market Insights provides a snapshot of recent real estate trends. The CoStar Market Analytics team monitors commercial and multifamily real estate across 390 metro areas, with a granular understanding of the projects, players and economic trends that move these markets.

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